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Impact of Demographic Trends on Antimicrobial Resistance


Roshen Fernando

Abstract: Medical advancements in the twenty-first century significantly contribute to increased longevity and the current global demographic trends, including population aging. While rising antimicrobial resistance (AMR) threatens the sustainability of longevity prospects, the current demographic trends also contribute to worsening AMR. We investigate the role of four demographic indicators (population growth, population aging, population density, and urbanization) in the resistance growth of seven pathogens against twelve antimicrobials in 30 countries from 2000 to 2020. We observe heterogeneous responses of different antimicrobial drug-pathogen combinations to demographic trends. We observe that the demographic trends could affect resistance growth more than antimicrobial consumption growth in some antimicrobial- drug pathogen combinations. We emphasize the importance of a broader exploration of factors affecting AMR evolution from a one-health approach and enhanced AMR surveillance, among others, to produce effective policy responses to tame AMR.

Keywords: Antimicrobial resistance, Infectious diseases, Demographic Trends, Population Growth, Population Aging, Urbanization, Econometrics, Machine Learning

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