CEPAR

You are here

Working Papers

2018Aug
Colleagues discussing ageing research

Zvi Eckstein, Michael Keane and Osnat Lifshitz

Comparing the 1935 and 1975 U.S. birth cohorts, wages of married women grew twice as fast as for married men, and the wage gap between married and single women turned from negative to positive. The employment rate of married women also increased sharply, while that of other groups remained quite stable. To better understand these diverse patterns we develop a lifecycle model incorporating individual and household decisions about education, employment, marriage/divorce and fertility. The model provides an excellent fit to wage and employment patterns, along with changes in education, marriage/divorce rates, and fertility. We assume fixed preferences, but allow for four exogenously changing factors: (i) mother’s education, health and taxes/transfers; (ii) marriage market opportunities and divorce costs; (iii) the wage structure and job offers; (iv) contraception technology. We quantify how each factor contributed to changes across cohorts. We find that factor (iii) was the most important force driving the increase in relative wages of married women, but that all four factors are important for explaining the many socio-economic changes that occurred in the past 50 years. Finally, we use the model to simulate a shift from joint to individual taxation. In a revenue neutral simulation, we predict this would increase employment of married women by 9% and the marriage rate by 8.1%.

2018Aug
Pensioners enjoying retirement

Ermanno Pitacco

Heterogeneity of a population in respect of mortality is due to differences among the individuals, which are caused by various risk factors. Some risk factors are observable while others are unobservable. The set of observable risk factors clearly depends on the type of population addressed. The impact of observable risk factors on individual mortality, in particular when they also constitute “rating factors” in the calculation of premiums and other actuarial values, is usually expressed approximately, according to some pragmatic approach. For example, additive or multiplicative adjustments to the average age-specific mortality are frequently adopted. Heterogeneity due to unobservable risk factors can conversely be quantified by adopting the concept of individual “frailty”. However, individual frailty can be interpreted and consequently modeled in several ways, according to the causes which are considered as originating the frailty itself: congenital characteristics, environmental features, lifestyle aspects, etc. It follows that the individual frailty can, in particular, be assumed either constant or variable throughout the lifetime.

Keywords: Heterogeneity, Frailty, Risk factors, Force of mortality, Mortality laws, Parametric models, Special-rate annuities.

2018Aug
Hazel Bateman

Julie Agnew, Hazel Bateman, Christine Eckert, Fedor Iskhakov, Jordan Louviere, and Susan Thorp

We quantify the widespread and significant economic impact of first impressions and confirmation bias in the financial advice market. We use a theoretical learning model and new experimental data to measure how these biases can evolve over time and change clients’ willingness to pay advisers. Our model demonstrates that clients’ confirmation bias will reinforce the effect of first impressions. Our results also lend support, in a new financial context, to theoretical models of learning under limited memory where people use unclear signals to confirm and reinforce their current beliefs. We find that almost two thirds of the participants in our experiment make choices that are consistent with a limited memory updating process: they interpret unclear advice to be good advice when it comes from the adviser they prefer. Our results show that models that account for behavioral factors such as confirmation bias may be needed to explain some financial decisions.

2018May
Financial independence

Fedor Iskhakov and Michael Keane

We structurally estimate a life-cycle model of consumption, labor supply and retirement, using data from the Australian HILDA panel. We use the model to evaluate effects of Australia’s Age Pension system and income tax policy on labor supply, consumption and retirement. Our model accounts for human capital, savings, uninsurable wage risk and credit constraints. We account for “bunching" of hours by assuming a discrete set of hours levels, and we investigate labor supply on both the intensive and extensive margins. Our model allows us to quantify the effects of anticipated and unanticipated tax and pension policy changes at different points of the life-cycle. Our results imply that Australia’s Age Pension system as currently designed is poorly targeted. Our simulations suggest that a doubling of taper rates, combined with a 5.9% reduction of income tax rates, would be budget neutral and Pareto improving.

2018May
Keane Mike

Michael Keane, Jonathan Ketcham, Nicolai Kuminoff and Timothy Neal

Abstract: We propose new methods to model choice behavior and conduct welfare analysis in complex environments where it is untenable to assume that choices fully reveal preferences. In particular, we investigate how Medicare beneficiaries choose prescription drug plans (PDPs) under the Medicare Part D program. Our approach is novel in that we estimate a multinomial logit model for PDP choice that allows for heterogeneity in both preferences and the behavioral choice process. We find the data can be well characterized by a mixture of three behavioral types: The “rational” type constructs expected out-of-pocket costs E(OOP) rationally, and, ceteris paribus, seeks to minimize premiums plus E(OOP) as theory suggests. The second type constructs expected out-of-pocket (OOP) costs rationally, but puts too much weight on premiums relative to E(OOP) in choosing plans. A third type, who we label “confused,” places weight on irrelevant financial aspects of drug plans, implying they fail to construct E(OOP) rationally. A consumer is more likely to be the “confused” type if they suffer from Alzheimer’s disease and/or depression. We use the model to quantify the monetary and welfare losses that arise from suboptimal decision making for the population, for the behavioral types, and for people with cognitive limitations. We also evaluate policies to simplify the choice set to reduce these losses.

 

2018Feb
Aged care analysis

Yajing Xu, Michael Sherris and Jonathan Ziveyi

The pricing of longevity-linked securities depends not only on the stochastic uncertainty of the underlying risk factors, but also the attitude of investors towards those factors. In this research, we investigate how to estimate the market risk premium of longevity risk using investable retirement indexes, incorporating uncertain real interest rates using an affine dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. 

2018Feb
Elena Capatina

Elena Capatina, Michael Keane and Shiko Maruyama

In the US healthcare system, patients of different socio-economic status (SES) often receive disparate treatment for similar conditions. Prior work documents this phenomenon for particular treatments/conditions, but we take a system-wide view and examine socioeconomic disparities in spending for all medical conditions at the 3-digit ICD-9 level. We also compare SES spending gradients for those covered by private vs. public insurance (Medicare). Using data on adult respondents from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey 2000-14, we estimate multivariate regressions for individual medical spending (total and out of pocket) controlling for medical conditions, demographics, health, and insurance, separately by sex, education, and age. Within age-sex categories, we assess how spending on each condition varies with education (a proxy for SES). In the predominantly privately insured population aged 24-64, system spending for several of the most socially costly conditions is strongly increasing in education (e.g., breast cancer for women and chest symptoms for men). These disparities are not explained by differences in health, insurance status, or ability-to-pay, suggesting they arise due to discrimination. However, we find no positive SES gradients for individuals over 64 covered by the public Medicare program, suggesting that Medicare plays an important role in improving equity.

2018Jan
Michael Sherris

Michael Sherris, Yajing Xu and Jonathan Ziveyi.

Multi-country risk management of longevity risk provides new opportunities to hedge mortality and interest rate risks in guaranteed lifetime income streams. This requires consideration of both interest rate and mortality risks in multiple countries. For this purpose, we develop value-based longevity indexes for multiple cohorts in two different countries that take into account the major sources of risks impacting life insurance portfolios, mortality and interest rates. To construct the indexes we propose a cohort-based affine model for multi-country mortality and use an arbitrage-free multi-country Nelson-Siegel model for the dynamics of interest rates. Index based longevity hedging strategies have the advantages of efficiency, liquidity and lower cost but introduce basis risk. Graphical risk metrics are a way to effectively capture the relationship between an insurer’s portfolio and hedging strategies. We illustrate the effectiveness of using a value–based index for longevity risk management between two countries using graphical basis risk metrics. To show the impact of both interest rate and mortality risk we use Australia and UK as domestic and foreign countries, and, to show the impact of mortality only, we use the male populations of the Netherlands and France with common interest rates and basis risk arising only from differences in mortality risks.

2018Jan
Pensioners enjoying a stroll

Shang Wu, Hazel Bateman, Ralph Stevens and Susan Thorp

We investigate whether a life care annuity - the integration of a life annuity with long-term care insurance (LTCI) - can enhance insurance participation to mitigate the economic puzzle of under- insurance in the longevity insurance and LTCI markets. Using an online choice experiment, we elicit individuals' preferences for consumption in different health conditions and their demand for a life care annuity and its health-contingent income feature.