Publications
Research Publications

Aging, inadequacy, and fiscal constraint: The case of Thailand

Poonpolkul, P. (2023). International Studies of Economics (ISE). 19(1), 35-67

Research Publications

Dementia Prevention and Individual and Socioeconomic Barriers: Avoiding "Lifestyle" Stigma

Wilson, N.A., and Anstey, K.A. (2023). The Gerontologist. Article Gnad130

Research Publications

Study protocol for development and validation of a single tool to assess risks of stroke, diabetes mellitus, myocardial infarction and dementia: DemNCD-Risk

Kootar, S., Huque, H., Kiely, K.M., Anderson, Jorm, L., Kivipelto, M., Lautenschlager, N.T., Matthews, F., Shaw, J.E., Whitmer, R.A., Peters, R., Anstey, K.J. (2023). BMJ Open. 13(9), Article e076860

Research Publications

International Responses Addressing the Under-representation of Older People in Clinical Research

Markham, S., McNab, J., O'Loughlin, K. and Clemson, L. (2023). Australasian Journal on Ageing. 42(4), 762-768

Research Publications

Accidental Flexicurity or Workfare? Navigating Ride-share Work and Australia's Welfare System

Veen, A., Barratt, T., Goods, C., Baird, M. (2023). Economic and Industrial Democracy.

Research Publications

Prevalence of unmet health care need in older adults in 83 countries: measuring progressing towards universal health coverage in the context of global population ageing

Kowal, P., Corso, B., Anindya, K., Andrade, F.C.D., Giang, T.L., Guitierrez, M.T.C., Pothisiri, W., Quashie, N.T., Reina, H.A.R., Rosenberg, M., Towers, A., Vicerra, P.M.M., Minicuci, N., Ng, N., & Byles, J. (2023). Popul Health Metrics. 21, Article 15

Research Publications

Age-dependent risk aversion: Re-evaluating fiscal policy impacts of population aging

Poonpolkul, P. (2023). The Journal of the Economics of Ageing. 26, Article 100474

Research Publications

Pain and its Interference with Daily Living in Relation to Cancer: A Comparative Population-based Study of 16,053 Cancer Survivors and 106,345 People without Cancer.

Joshy, G., Khalatbari-Soltani, S., Soga, K., Butow, P., Laidsaar-Powell, R., Koczwara, B., Rankin, N.M., Brown, S., Weber, M., Mazariego, C., Grogan, P., Stubbs, J., Thottunkal, S., Canfell, K., Blyth, F.M. and Banks, E.  (2023). BMC Cancer. 23(1), Article 774

Research Publications

Use of Antihypertensives, Blood Pressure, and Estimated Risk of Dementia in Late Life: An Individual Participant Meta-Analysis

Lennon, M.J., Lam, B.C.P, Lipnicki, D.M.,Crawford, J.D., Peters, R., Schutte, A.E., Brodaty, H., Thalamuthu, A., Rydberg-Sterner, T., Najar, J., Skoog, I., Riedel-Heller, S.G., Rohr, S., Pabst, A., Lobo, A.,, De-la-Camara, C., Lobo, E., Bello, T., Gurege, O., Ojagbemi, A., Lipton, R.B., Katz, M.J., Derby, C.A., Kim, K.W., Han, J.W., Oh, D.J., Rolandi, E., Davin, A., Rossi, M., Scarmeas, N., Yannakoulia, M., Dardiotis, T., Hendre, H.C., Gao, S., Carriere, I., Ritchie, K., Anstey, K.J., Cherbuin, N., Xiao, S., Yue, L., Li, W., Guerchet, M.M., Preux, P.M., Aboyans, V., Haan, M.N., Aiello, A.E., Ng, T.P., Nyunt, M.S.Z., Gao, Q., Scazufca, M., and Sachdev, P.S.S. (2023). JAMA Network Open. 6(9), Article e2333353

Research Publications

Caregiver Burden Scale: Zarit Interview

Yiengprugsawan, V.S. (2023). In: Maggino, F. (eds). Encyclopedia of Quality of Life and Well-Being Research. Springer, Cham. 

Research Publications

The Pros and Cons of Remaining in a 401(k) Plan after Retirement

Mitchell, O.S., Reilly, C. and Turner, J. (2023). Financial Services Review. 31(1), 1-21

Research Publications

Attitudes and perceptions of advance care planning among Chinese-speaking older Australians

Yeoh, L., Rhee, J., Tan, B., and Sinclair, C. (2023). American Journal of Hospice & Palliative Medicine. 

Research Publications

CogDrisk, ANU-ADRI, CAIDE, and LIBRA Risk Scores for Estimating Dementia Risk

Huque, H., Kootar, S., Eramudugolla, R., Han, S.D., Carlson, M.C., Lopez, O.L., Bennett, D.A., Peters, R., and Anstey, K.A. (2023). JAMA Network Open. 6(8), Article e2331460

Research Publications

Advance care planning in Australia: Progress in research and implementation

Sinclair, C., Mann, J., Reymond, E., Sansome, X. (2023). Zeitschrift fur Evidenz (ZEFQ): The Journal of Evidence and Quality in Healthcare. 180, 111-114

Research Publications

Hiring on Vocational Interests to Simultaneously Improve Validity and Organizational Diversity

Wee, S., Newman, D.A. and Su, R. (2023). International Journal of Selection and Assessment. 31(4), 504-508

Research Publications

A Study of New Labour Market Entrants’ Job Satisfaction Trajectories during a Series of Consecutive Job Changes

Zhou, Y., Zou, M., Wu, C. H., Parker, S. K., and Griffin, M. A. (2023). Journal of Applied Psychology

Research Publications

Early Pension Withdrawals in Chile During the Pandemic

Fuentes, O., Mitchell, O.S. and Villatoro, F. (2023). Journal of Pension Economics and Finance. 1-26

Research Publications

Can you Outsmart the Robot? An Unexpected Path to Work Meaningfulness

Gostautaite, B., Liuberte, I., Parker, S. K., and Buciuniene, I. (2023). Academy of Management Discoveries, Special Research Forum: The Human Side of the Future of Work. 

Research Publications

Associations between Protein to Non-protein Ratio and Intakes of Other Dietary Components in a Cohort Aged 65-75 Years: The Nutrition for Healthy Living Study

Luong, R., Ribeiro, R.V., Hirani, V., Simpson, S.J., Le Couteur, D.J., Raubenheimer, D., and Gosby, A.K. (2023). Public Health Nutrition. 26(12), 3023-3037

Research Publications

Five-Year Trajectories of Prescription Opioid Us

Gisev, N., Buizen, L., Hopkins, R.E., Schaffer, A.L., Daniels, B., Bharat, C., Dobbins, T., Larney, S., Blyth, F., Currow, D.C., Wilson, A., Pearson, S.A., and Degenhardt, L. (2023). JAMA Network Open. 6(8), Article e2328159

Research Publications

Opioid Deprescribing in Patients with Chronic Noncancer Pain: A Systematic Review of International Guidelines

Hamilton, M., Kwok, W.S., Hsu, A., Mathieson, S., Gnjidic, D., Deyo, R., Ballantyne, J., Von Korff, M., Blyth, F. and Lin, C.C. (2023). Pain. 164(3), 485-493

Research Publications

Provision of Domiciliary Dental Service to Residential Aged Care Facilities: A 3-year Descriptive Summary

Chu, K.Y., Wright, F.A.C., Naganathan, V., Stanaway, F., Tran, J. and Cockrell, D. (2023). Special Care in Dentistry. 

Research Publications

Aged Care in Emerging Asia: New Demands, Evolving Responses, and Future Directions

O’Keefe, P. and Yiengprugsawan, V.S. (2023). In: Rajan, S.I. (ed.). Handbook of Aging, Health and Public Policy. Springer, Singapore.

Research Publications

Fixed and Variable Longevity Annuities in Defined Contribution Plans: Optimal Retirement Portfolios Taking Social Security into Account

Horneff, V., Maurer, R. and Mitchell, O.S. (2023). Journal of Risk and Insurance. 90(4), 831-860

Research Publications

Designing Work for Change and its Unintended Side Effects

Fasbender, U., and Gerpott, F.H. (2023). Journal of Vocational Behavior. 145, Article 103913

Research Publications

Gender, education, and cohort differences in healthy working life expectancy at age 50 in Australia

Hambisa, M. T., Tawiah, R., Jagger, C., and Kiely, K.M. (2023). Lancet Public Health. 8(8), e610-e617

Research Publications

Editorial: Advance care planning as key to person centered care: Evidence and experiences, programmes and perspectives

Krones, T., Anderson, S., Borenko, C., Fromme, E., Gotze, K., Lasmarias, C., Lin, C-P., Forte, D., Ng, R., Simon, J., Sinclair, C. (2023). Zeitschrift fur Evidenz (ZEFQ): The Journal of Evidence and Quality in Healthcare. 180, 1-6

Research Publications

Pension Policy in Emerging Asian Economies with Population Aging: What Do We Know, Where Should We Go?

Kudrna, G., O’Keefe, P. and Piggott, J. (2023). In. Bloom, D., Souza-Posa, and Sunde, U., eds. Routledge Handbook on the Economics of Ageing. Routledge. pp.389-427

Research Publications

Sarcopenia Prevalence and Functional Outcomes in Older Men with Obesity: Comparing the use of the EWGSOP2 Sarcopenia Versus ESPEN-EASO Sarcopenic Obesity Consensus Definitions

Scott, D., Blyth, F., Naganathan, V., Le Couteur, D.G., Handelsman, D.J., Waite, L.M. and Hirani, V. (2023). Clinical Nutrition. 42(9), 1610-1618

Research Publications

The Precariousness of Living with, and Caring for People with, Dementia: Insights from the IDEAL Programme

Hillman, A., Jones, A.R., Quinn, C, Pentecost, C., Stapley, S., Charlwood, C. and Clare, L. (2023). Social Science & Medicine. 331, Article 116098

Research Publications

Retirement and cognitive aging in a racially diverse sample of older Americans

Andel, R., Veal, B. M., Howard, V. J., MacDonald, L. A., Judd, S. E., & Crowe, M. (2023). Journal of the American Geriatrics Society. 71(9), 2769-2778

Research Publications

Preferences and Perspectives of Australian General Practitioners' Towards a New "Four-in-One" Risk Assessment Tool for Preventative Health: The LEAD! GP Project

Chong, T.W.H., Rego, T., Rhoda, L., Westphal, A., Dimity, P.C., Curran, E., Kootar, S., Peters, R., Anstey, K.A., and Lautenschlager, N. (2023). Journal of Alzheimer’s Disease. 94(2), 801-814

Research Publications

A Multi-state Model for Sick Leave and its Impact on Partial Early Retirement Incentives: The Case of the Netherlands

de Mol van Otterloo, S. & Alonso-García, J. (2023). Scandinavian Actuarial Journal. 2023(3), 244-268

Research Publications

Physical Activity for Cognitive Health: A Model for Intervention Design for People Experiencing Cognitive Concerns and Symptoms of Depression or Anxiety

Curran, E., Palmer, V.J., Ellis, K.A., Chong, T.W.H., Rego, T., Cox, K.L., Anstey, K.J., Westphal, A., Moorhead, R., Southam, J., Lai, R., You, E.,  and Lautenschlager, N.T. (2023). Journal of Alzheimer’s Disease. 94(2), 781–799

Research Publications

Sex and Gender Differences in Risk Scores for Dementia and Alzheimer's Disease among Cisgender, Transgender, and Non-binary Adults

Brady, B., Zheng, L., Kootar, S., and Anstey, K.J. (2023). Alzheimer's and Dementia. 20(1), 5-15

Research Publications

Creation of the Algorithmic Management Questionnaire: A Six-phase Scale Development Process

Parent-Rocheleau, X., Parker, S. K., Bujold, A., and Gaudet, M. (2023). Human Resource Management. 61(1), 1-159

Research Publications

Health Literacy and Older Adults: Findings from a National Population-Based Survey

Fry, J.M., Antoniades, J., Temple, J.B., Osborne, R.H., Cheng, C. Hwang, K., and Brijnath, B. (2023). Health Promotion Journal of Australia. 1-17

Research Publications

Validation of Frail Scale and comparison with hospital frailty risk score to predict hospital use in a cohort of older Australian women

Shebeshi, D.S., Dolja-Gore, X. and Byles, J. (2023). Int J Health Plann Mgmt. 38(5), 1510-1519

Research Publications

Cognitive reserve, neuropathology, and progression towards Alzheimer's disease

Nelson, M. E., Andel, R., & Hort, J. (2023). Aging. 15(13), 5963-5965 

Long-term care insurance financing using home equity release: Evidence from an online experimental survey
Working Papers

Rural-Urban Migration and the Health of Left-Behind Older Adults

Tess Stafford, Xiaoyun Zhang and Katja Hanewald

Abstract: We study the effect of rural-urban migration on the well-being of older adults that re- main in rural communities in China, a country that is experiencing extensive rural-urban migration and rapid population aging. We exploit China’s historic “sent-down youth” program which temporarily relocated millions of urban youth to rural villages and created lasting social ties between sending cities and receiving villages. These ties, coupled with present-day variation in urban growth, create exogenous variation in present-day rural-urban migration rates, allowing us to uncover causal effects of migration. Results suggest that migration negatively affects the physical, cognitive, and emotional health of older adults that remain behind. (JEL I12, I15, J24, J61, O15, O18, R23)

 

Research Publications

Characteristics of Urban Neighbourhood Environments and Cognitive Age in Mid-age and Older Adults

Soloveva, M.V., Poudel, G., Barnett, A., Shaw, J.E., Martino, E., Knibbs, L.D., Anstey, K.J., and Cerin, E. (2023). Health and Place. 83, Article 103077

Research Publications

Portfolio management for insurers and pension funds and COVID-19: targeting volatility for equity, balanced, and target-date funds with leverage constraints

Doan, B., Reeves, J.J. and Sherris, M. (2023). Annals of Actuarial Science. ​1-24

Research Publications

Delay the Pension Age or Adjust the Pension Benefit? Implications for Labor Supply and Individual Welfare in China

Deng, Y., Fang, H., Hanewald, K., and Wu, S. (2023). Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. 212, 1192-1215

Research Publications

The role of caregiving in cognitive function and change: The REGARDS study

Elayoubi, J., Nelson, M. E., Mu, C. X., Haley, W. E., Wadley, V. G., Clay, O. J., Crowe, M., Cushman, M., Grant, J. S., Roth, D. L., & Andel, R. (2023). Psychology and Aging. 38(7), 712–724

Research Publications

A Technology-enriched Approach to Studying Microlongitudinal Aging among Adults aged 18 to 85 Years: Protocol for the Labs without Walls Study

Brady, B., Zhou, S., Ashworth, D., Zheng, L., Eramudugolla, R., Huque, M.H., and Anstey, K.J. (2023). JMIR Research Protocols. 12, Article e47053

Research Publications

Addressing Dementia Through Analysis of Population Traits and Risk Factors (ADAPTOR) Project: Dementia Incidence in an Australian cohort

Nepal, S., Dolja-Gore, X., Cavenagh, D., D'Este, C., Anstey, K.J., Brodaty, H., Welberry, H.J., Goh, A.M., and McNamara, M. (2023). Public Health Research and Practice. 33(2), Article e3322317

Research Publications

Haem iron intake is associated with increased major adverse cardiovascular events, all-cause mortality, congestive cardiac failure, and coronary revascularisation in older men: The Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project

Luong, R., Ribeiro, R.V., Rangan, A., Naganathan, V., Blyth, F., Waite, L.M., Handelsman, D.J., Le Couteur, D.G., Seibel, M. and Hirani, V. (2023). The Journal of Nutrition, Health and Aging. 27, 559-570

Research Publications

Do Required Minimum Distribution 401(k) Rules Matter, and For Whom? Insights from a Lifecycle Model

Horneff, V., Maurer, R. and Mitchell, O.S. (2023). Journal of Banking and Finance. 154, Article 106941

Research Publications

The use of driver screening tools to predict self-reported crashes and incidents in older drivers

Attuquayefio, T., Huque, H., Kiely, K.M., Eramudugolla, R., Black, A., Wood, J., and Anstey, K.J. (2023). Accident Analysis Prevention. 191, Article 107193

Research Publications

Do health assessments affect time to permanent residential aged care admission for older women with and without dementia?

Byles, J., Cavenagh, D., Bryant, J., Carey, M., Mazza, D. and Sanson-Fisher, R. (2023). Geriatr. Gerontol. Int. 23(8), 595–602

Research Publications

Physical Activity and Injurious Falls in Older Australian Women: Adjusted Associations and Modification by Physical Function Limitation and Frailty in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health.

Kwok, W.S., Dolja-Gore, X., Khalatbari-Soltani, S., Byles, J., Oliveira, J., Pinheiro, M., Naganathan, V., Tiedemann, A. and Sherrington, C. (2023). Age and Ageing. 52(6), Article afad108

Research Publications

Forecasting Small Area Populations with Long Short-Term Memory Networks

Grossman, I., Wilson, T. and Temple, J. (2023). Socio-Economic Planning Sciences. 88, Article 101658

Research Publications

Nativity in the Healthy Migrant Effect: Evidence from Australia

Huang, G., Guo, F., Cheng, Z., Liu, L., Zimmermann, K.F., Taksa, L., Tani, M., Franklin, M. (2023). SSM-Population Health. 23, Article 101457

State Pension Eligibility Age and Retirement Behaviour: Evidence from the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study
Working Papers

‘Relabelling’ of Individual Early Retirement Pension in Finland: Application and Behavioural Responses using Finnish Register Data

Ricky Kanabar, Satu Nivalainen and Noora Järnefelt

Abstract: Using rich Finnish population level registers, we examine the impact of fusing a flexible early retirement pathway with a more stringent pathway, without changing eligibility conditions, so- called ‘relabelling’, on individual application behaviour. Our findings show that among affected cohorts the likelihood of applying for (successfully claiming) disability-related early retirement declined by 1.8 (1.5) percentage points equivalent to a relative drop of approximately 37% (39%) following the reform. Individuals with below tertiary level education and stronger lifetime labour market attachment exhibit a stronger behavioural response to the reform. We find tentative evidence of programme substitution to early retirement pathways designed to keep individuals in the labour market albeit on a part time basis. Our findings suggest that social norms and lack of awareness associated with early retirement pathways can strongly influence application behaviour even when eligibility conditions remain unchanged, offering policymakers novel ways to extend working lives.

Keywords: Retirement, disability, pensions, Finland, regression discontinuity.

 

Research Publications

Clinical Practice Guideline for Deprescribing Opioid Analgesics: Summary of Recommendations

Langford, A.V., Lin, C.C., Bero, L., Blyth, F.M., Doctor, J., Holliday, S., Jeon, Y.H., Moullin, J., Murnion, B., Nielsen, S., Osman, R., Penm, J., Reeve, E., Reid, S., Wale, J., Schneider, C.R. and Gnjidic, D. (2023). Medical Journal of Australia. 219(2), 80-89

Research Publications

Sex Differences in Lifetime Prevalence of Low Back Pain: A Multinational Study of Opposite-sex Twin Pairs

Calais-Ferreira, L., Pozzobon, D., Pinheiro, M.B., Blyth, F.M., Ordoñana, J.R., Duncan, G.E., Hopper, J.L., Ferreira, P.H. and Ferreira, M.L. (2023). European Journal of Pain. 27(10), 1150-1160

Doreen Kabuche
Working Papers

Pooling Functional Disability and Mortality in Long-Term Care Insurance and Care Annuities: A Matrix Approach for Multi-State Pools

Doreen Kabuche, Michael Sherris, Andrés M. Villegas and Jonathan Ziveyi

Abstract: Mortality risk sharing pools such as pooled annuity funds and tontines provide an attractive and effective solution for managing longevity risk. They have been widely studied in the literature. However, such arrangements are not optimal for individuals in need of long-term-care (LTC) insurance. Enhancing the design of pooled annuities and tontines factoring in LTC can aid in reducing the cost of LTC insurance. This paper presents a matrix-based approach for pooling mortality risk across heterogeneous individuals classified by functional disability states and chronic illness statuses. Based on multi-state models of functional disability and health statuses, we demonstrate how individuals with different health risks can share mortality risk in a pooled annuity design. A multi-state pool is formed by pooling annuitants vulnerable to longevity and LTC risks, determining the associated actuarially fair benefits based on individuals' health states. We provide a general structure for setting up a pooled annuity product that can be applied even for complex multi-state models. An extensive analysis is also carried out to illustrate our approach with numerical examples using US Health and Retirement Study (HRS) data. From the numerical illustrations, there is an increasing trend in the expected annuity benefits with higher upsides for individuals in poor health than those in good health, especially when systematic trends and uncertainty are considered in pricing. Smaller pool sizes and higher mortality credits among ill and disabled individuals due to higher death probabilities are the two main factors for the increased benefits in dependency.

Keywords: long-term care insurance, pooled annuity, multi-state models, functional disability, health status.

Research Publications

What Guides Back Pain Care? A Content Analysis of Low Back Pain Directives in the Australian Context.

Parambath, S., Costa, N., Schneider, C.H. and Blyth, F.M. (2023). Health Research Policy Systems. 21(1), Article 49

Erik Hernaes
Working Papers

The Impact of Pension Reform on Employment, Retirement and Disability Insurance Claims

Erik Hernæs, Simen Markussen, John Piggott and Knut Røed

Abstract: We evaluate a comprehensive reform of Norwegian early retirement institutions in 2011 through the lens of a parsimonious random utility choice model. The reform radically changed work incentives and/or pension access-age for some (but not all) workers. We find that improved work incentives caused employment to rise considerably, at the expense of both early retirement and exits through disability insurance. Lower access-age to own pension funds caused a small increase in employment and a large drop in disability program participation. Properly designed pension reforms thus need to take the interplay between old age pension and disability insurance programs into account.

 

Research Publications

Older Immigrants’ Integration: Organisational Processes and Practices in the Australian Context.

Franklin, M., Taksa, L., Guo, F. (2023). In Diedrich, A., and Czarniawska, B. (eds). Organising Immigrants’ Integration Practices and Consequences in Labour Markets and Societies. Springer Nature, Switzerland. pp.219-248

Research Publications

Act or wait-and-see? Adversity, Agility, and Entrepreneur Wellbeing across Countries during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Stephan, U., Zbierowski, P., Perez-Luno, A., Wach, D., Wiklund, J., Cabanas, M.A., Barki, E., Benzari, A., Bernhard-Oettel, C., Boekhorst, J. A., Dash, A., Efendic, A., Eib, C., Hanard, P., Iakovleva, T., Kawakatsu, S., Khalid, S., Leatherbee, M., Li, J., Parker, S.K., Qu, J., Rosati, F., Sahasranamam, S., Salusse, M.A.Y., Sekiguchi, T., Thomas, N., Torres, O., Tran, M.H., Ward, M.K., Williamson, A.J. and Zahid, M.M. (2023). Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice. 47(3), 682-723

Research Publications

How Would 401(k) ‘Rothification’ Alter Saving, Retirement Security, and Inequality?

Horneff, V., Maurer, R. and Mitchell, O.S. (2023). Journal of Pension Economics and Finance. 22(3), 265-283 

Research Publications

No longer Indigenous

Shalley, F., Griffiths, K., and Wilson, T. (2023). Population Research and Policy Review. 42, Article 53

Research Publications

Money Matters but What Else? Mature Worker Motives and the Importance of Gender, Age, Socioeconomic Status, and Age-inclusive HR Practice

Loh, V., Hamilton, M., Baird, M., Zettna, N., Constantin, A., Andrei, D.M., Petery, G., Parker, S. (2023). Australian Journal of Management

Research Publications

Multi-domain Prognostic Models used in Middle-aged Adults Without known Cognitive Impairment for Predicting Subsequent Dementia

Mohanannair, G.G., Quinn T.J., George, J., Anstey, K.J., Bell, J.S., Sarwar, M.R., Cross, A.J. (2023). Cochrane Database System Review. 6(6), Article CD014885

Research Publications

Use of predictive analytics to identify unhealthy opioid use and guide intervention

Valdes, E. G., Reist, C., Aamar, R., Hallisey, B., Stanton, E. S., Williams, L., Andel, R,. & Gorman, J. (2023). Psychiatric services. 74(6), 622-627

Research Publications

A longitudinal analysis of factors associated with age-related cataract among older Australian women: a cohort study of 7851 older Australian women 79–90 years

Hambisa, M.T., Dolja-Gore, X. & Byles, J.E. (2023). Irish Journal of Medical Science. 192, 1525–1536 

Research Publications

The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Life Expectancy in 27 Countries

Huang, G., Guo, F., Zimmermann, K.F., Liu, L., Taksa, L., Cheng, Z., Tani, M., Franklin, M. (2023). Scientific Reports. 13, Article 8911

Research Publications

A Scoping Review of Workplace Interventions to Promote Positive Attitudes towards Older Workers and Reduce Age-based Discrimination

Sinclair, C., Joffe, T., Ginnivan, N., Parker, S. K., and Anstey, K. J. (2023). Work, Aging, and Retirement. Article waad013

Research Publications

Energy Poverty and Food Insecurity: Is There an Energy or Food Trade-Off among Low-Income Australians?

Fry, J.M., Farerell, L., and Temple, J.B. (2023). Energy Economics. 123, Article 106731

Research Publications

Workplace Innovation in the Digital Era: A Role for SMART Work Design.

Parker, S. K., and Boeing, A. A. (2023). In P. R. A., Oeij, S. Dhondt, and A. J. McMurray (eds). A Research Agenda for Workplace Innovation: The Challenge of Disruptive Transitions. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK. 

Research Publications

Determinants of Individuals’ Objective and Subjective Financial Fragility during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Kleimeier, S., Hoffmann, A., Broihanne, M., Plotkina, D. and Göritz, A. (2023). Journal of Banking and Finance. 153, #106881

 

Research Publications

Development and Evaluation of Probabilistic Forecasting Methods for Small Area Populations

Grossman, I., Bandara, K., Wilson, T., and Kirley, M. (2023). Environment and Planning B

Age-Dependent Multi-Cohort Affine Mortality Model with Cohort Correlation
Working Papers

Age-Dependent Multi-Cohort Affine Mortality Model with Cohort Correlation

Yuxin Zhou, Len Patrick Garces, Yang Shen, Michael Sherris and Jonathan Ziveyi

Abstract: Continuous-time affine mortality models are useful in the analysis of age-cohort mortality rates as they yield a closed-form expression for survival curves which are consistent with the dynamics of latent factors driving mortality and are well-suited for finance and insurance applications. We extend and improve these mortality models by introducing age dependence of mortality rates and correlation between cohorts. We propose and compare two classes of age-dependent mortality models, namely the age-dependent coefficient model and the age-dependent factor model. Specifically, we assess both Gaussian and CIR-type models for each category of age-dependent models. Both categories of age-dependent models involve age and calendar time, which in turn specifies the cohort. Thus, our models admit an analytical form for the instantaneous correlation between mortality rates of different cohorts. Moreover, we propose two improvements to the parameter estimation process. First, to improve the estimation of cohort correlations, we regularise the parameter estimation by adding a penalty term which penalises larger differences between empirical and estimated correlations. Second, we develop and assess a method to include incomplete cohorts into the Kalman filtering algorithm for parameter estimation. We calibrate the mortality models to data from multiple countries which include Australia, Denmark, UK, and USA to assess and compare in-sample fit and forecasting performance. By incorporating age dependence and using incomplete cohort mortality data, we improve the goodness of fit and produce more reasonable out-of-sample forecasts of survival probabilities. We also show that regularisation produces more realistic correlations between cohorts for varying age differences. Our results show that, under most circumstances, the correlation between cohorts decreases as the age difference increases.

Keywords: Mortality model, Age-dependent, Multi-cohort, Cohort correlation, Incomplete cohort, Affine, Regularisation

Research Publications

Interactions Across the Ages: How Concerns about Warmth and Competence Impact Age-Based Stereotype Threat in the Workplace

von Hippel, C., Pearson, S., Coulon, S., Adams, A.G. and Zacher, H. (2023). Psychology and Aging. 38(7), 740-747

Research Publications

Embracing the digital workplace: a SMART work design approach to supporting virtual work

Wang, B., and Parker, S. K. (2023). In L. L. Gilson, T. O’Neill, & M. T. Maynard (eds). Handbook of Virtual Work. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK. pp. 403-423

Research Publications

Joint Predictability of Physical Frailty/Pre-frailty and Subjective Memory Complaints on Mortality Risk among Cognitiviely Unimpaired Older Adults

Li, C.-L., Stanaway, F.F., Chang, H.-Y., Chen, M.-C. and Tsai, Y.-H. (2023). European Journal of Ageing. 20(1), Article 17

Research Publications

Gender Specific Factors Contributing to Cognitive Reslience in APOE ꜫ4 Positive Older Adults in a Population-based Sample

Zheng, L., Eramudugolla, R., Cherbuin, N., Drouin, S.M., Dixon, R.A., and Anstey, K.J. (2023). Scientific Reports. 13, Article 8037

Research Publications

Personnel Selection in Australia: Identifying Research-Practice Gaps and Understanding the Importance of Culture Fit

Kirk, J., Wee, S. and Dunlop, P. (2023). Personnel Assessments and Decisions. 9(1), Article 2

 

Research Publications

Depression in Mid- and Later-life and Risk of Dementia in Women: A Prospective Study within the Danish Nurses Cohort.

Hickey, M., Hueg, T.K., Priskon, L., Uldbjerg, C.S., Beck, A.L., Anstey, K.J., Lim, Y., and Brauner, E.V. (2023). Journal of Alzheimer’s Disease. 93(2), 779-789

Research Publications

Winter Storm Uri Reduced Availability of Daily Direct-Care Nurse Staff in Texas Nursing Homes

Jester, D. J., Peterson, L. J., Andel, R., & Dosa, D. M. (2023). Journal of Applied Gerontology. 42(10), 2148 - 2157

Research Publications

Parental History of Dementia and the Risk of Dementia: A Cross-sectional Analysis of a Global Collaborative Study

Oh, D.J., Bae, J.B., Lipnicki, D.M., Han, J.W., Sachdev, P.S., Kim, T.H., Kwak, K.P., Kim, B.J., kim, S.G., Kim, J.L., Moon, S.W., Park, K.P., Ryu, S., Youn, J.C., Lee, D.Y., Lee, D.W., Lee, S.B., Lee, J.J., Jhoo, J.H., Skoog, I., Najar, J., Sterner, T.R., Guaita, A., Vaccaro, R., Rolandi, E., Scarmeas, N., Yannakoulia, M., Kosmidis, M.H., Riedel-Heller, S.G., Roehr, S., Dominguez, J., Guzman, M.F.D., Fowler, K.C., Lobo, A., Saz, P., Lopez-Anton, R., Anstey, K.J., Cherbuin, N., Mortby, M.E., Brodaty, H., Trollor, J., Kochan, N., & Kim, K.W. (2023). Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences. 77(8), 449-456

Research Publications

Help Anyone, if Helped by Some: Understanding Generalized Reciprocity through the Lens of Interaction Ritual Chain Theory

Wang, B., Liu, Y., Qian, J., and Parker, S. K. (2023). Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology. 96(4), 970-992

Research Publications

Pension Funds and Sustainable Investment: Challenges and Opportunities

Hammond, B.P., Maurer, R., and Mitchell, O.S., eds. (2023). Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.

Research Publications

Navigating Community-based Aged Care Services from the Consumer Perspective: A Scoping Review

Xie, Y., Hamilton, M., Sinclair, C., Peisah, C. and Anstey, K. (2023). The Gerontologist. ​Article gnad017

Research Publications

Navigating Community- based Aged Care Services from the Consumer Perspective: A Scoping Review

Xie, Y., Hamilton, M., Sinclair, C., Peisah, C. & Anstey, K. (2023). The Gerontologist. gnad017 

Research Publications

Feeling Comfortable with my Mortgage: The Impact of Choice Architecture, Financial Literacy and Advice

Thorp, S., Agnew, J., Bateman, H., Eckert, C,. Iskhakov, F. and Liu, L. (2023). Journal of Financial Literacy and Wellbeing. 1(1), 47-78

Research Publications

From Mainstream Employment to Mainstream Retirement: A Randomised Controlled Trial of a Transition to Retirement Intervention for Adults with Intellectual Disability

Brotherton, M., Stancliffe, R. J., O'Loughlin, K., and Wilson, N. J. (2023). Journal of Applied Research in Intellectual Disabilities: JARID. 36(5), 1013-1024

Research Publications

Were there really 1 Million Unoccupied Dwellings in Australia on Census Night 2021?

Wilson, T., Sigler, T. and Zou, F. (2022). Australian Population Studies. 6(2), 14-26

An Augmented Variable Dirichlet Process Mixture Model for the Analysis of Dependent Lifetimes
Working Papers

An Augmented Variable Dirichlet Process Mixture Model for the Analysis of Dependent Lifetimes

Francesco Ungolo and Patrick J. Laub

Abstract: The analysis of insurance and annuity products issued on multiple lives requires the use of statistical models which account for lifetime dependence. This work presents a Dirichlet Process Mixture-based approach which allows to model dependent lifetimes within a group, such as married couples, accounting for individual as well as group-specific covariates. The model is analysed in a fully Bayesian setting, and illustrated to jointly model the lifetime of male-female couples in a portfolio of joint and last survivor annuities of a Canadian life insurer. The inferential approach allows to account for right censoring and left truncation, which are common features of data in survival analysis. The model shows improved in-sample and out-of-sample performance compared to traditional approaches assuming independent lifetimes, and offers additional insights into the determinants of the dependence between lifetimes and their impact on joint and last survivor annuity prices.

Keywords: Dependent lifetimes, Survival Analysis, Dirichlet Process, Bayesian analysis, Life insurance, MCMC, Mixture models

 

Estimation, Comparison and Projection of Multi-factor Age-Cohort Affine Mortality Models
Working Papers

A Dirichlet Process Mixture Regression Model for the Analysis of Competing Risk Events

Francesco Ungolo and Edwin R. van den Heuvel

Abstract: We develop a regression model for the analysis of competing risk events. The joint distribution of the time to these events is characterized by a random effect following a Dirichlet Process, explaining their variability. This entails an additional layer of flexibility of this joint model, whose inference is robust with respect to the misspecification of the distribution of the random effects. The model is analysed in a fully Bayesian setting, yielding a flexible Dirichlet Process Mixture model for the joint distribution of the time to events. An efficient MCMC sampler is developed for inference. The modelling approach is applied to the empirical analysis of the surrending risk in a US life insurance predictive performance of the surrending rates.

Keywords: Competing Risks, Survival Analysis, Dirichlet Processes, Bayesian analysis, Lapse risk, MCMC

 

Research Publications

Impact of Mild Behavioral Impairment on Longitudinal Changes in Cognition

Rouse, H. J., Ismail, Z., Andel, R., Molinari, V. A., Schinka, J. A., and Small, B. J. (2023). The Journals of Gerontology: Series A. Article glad098

Research Publications

Functional difficulties and toileting among older adults in Ghana: evidence from the World Health Organization Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE) Ghana Wave 1

Awuviry-Newton, K., Wales, K., Tavener, M., Kowal, P. and Byles, J. (2023). Ageing and Society. 43(1), 53-75

Research Publications

Precise Conclusions Regarding the Influence of Age Stereotypes Require Precise Operationalizations Thereof

Rudolph, C. W., Friedrich, J. C., & Zacher, H. (2022). Work, Aging and Retirement. 8(4), 371–374

Research Publications

Validation of the CogDrisk Instrument as Predictive of Dementia in Four General Community-dwelling Populations

Kootar, S., Huque, M.H., Eramdugolla, R., Rizzuto, D., Carlson, M.C., Odden, M.C., Lopez, O.L., Qiu, C., Fratiglioni, L., Han, S.D., Bennett, D.A., Peters, R. and Anstey, K.J. (2023). The Journal of Prevention of Alzheimer’s Disease. 10, 478–487 

Research Publications

Longer-term Structural Transitions and Short-term Macroeconomic Adjustment: Quantitative Implications for the Global Financial System

McKibbin, W. and Vines, D. (2023). Oxford Review of Economic Policy. 39(2), 245-266

Research Publications

Invited editorial: Goal-concordant end-of-life care: The ultimate goal for advance care planning?

Sinclair, C. (2023). Annals of Palliative Medicine. 12(3), 437-440

Research Publications

Testing Times for Dementia: A Community Survey Identifying Contemporary Barriers to Risk Reduction and Screening

Wilson, N., Peters, R., Lautenschlager, N.T., and Anstey, K.J. (2023). Alzheimer’s Research and Therapy. 15, Article 76

Research Publications

Rural-to-urban Migration, Socio-economic Status and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors Among Bangladeshi Adults: A Nationwide Population Based Survey

Mumu, S.J., Stanaway, F. and Merom, D. (2023). Front Public Health. 11, Article 860927

Research Publications

The future burden of oesophageal and stomach cancers attributable to modifiable behaviours in Australia: a pooled cohort study

Laaksonen, M.A., Li, S., Canfell, K. et al. (2023). Br J Cancer. 128, 1052–1069