You are here

Lifetime Dependence Modelling using the Truncated Multivariate Gamma Distribution


Daniel Alai, Zinoviy Landsman and Michael Sherris

Systematic improvements in mortality results in dependence in the survival distributions of insured lives. This is not allowed for in standard life tables and actuarial models used for annuity pricing and reserving. Systematic longevity risk also undermines the law of large numbers; a law that is relied on in the risk management of life insurance and annuity portfolios.

This paper applies a multivariate gamma distribution to incorporate dependence. Lifetimes are modelled using a truncated multivariate gamma distribution that induces dependence through a shared gamma distributed component. Model parameter estimation is developed based on the method of moments and generalized to allow for truncated observations.

PDF icon Download (483.1 KB)