Publications
Research Publications

New directions in centre-based aged care in Australia: Responding to changing funding models and the COVID-19 pandemic, Australasian Journal on Ageing

Hamilton, M., Crawford, T., Thomson, C., Jeon, Y. and Bassatt, K. (2022). Australas J Ageing. 

Research Publications

Pension Policy in Emerging Asian Economies with Population Ageing: What Do We Know, Where Should We Go?

Kudrna, G., O’Keefe P., Piggott J. (2023). In Bloom, D., Sousa-Poza, A. and Sunde, U. (Eds.). The Routledge Handbook on the Economics of Ageing. Routledge.

Research Publications

Mixed Evidence of an Association between Self-Rated Hearing Difficulties and Falls: Prospective Analysis of Two Longitudinal Studies

Kiely, K. M., Khalatbari-Soltani, S., Blyth, F. M., Naganathan, V., Handelsman, D. J., Waite, L. M., Le Couteur, D. G., Mortby, M. E., Cumming, R. G. and Anstey, K. J. (2022). Gerontology

Research Publications

Shifting educational gradients in body mass index trajectories of Indonesians: an age period cohort analysis.

Liwin, L.K. (2022). BMC Public Health. 22(1), P. 1004

Research Publications

Preparing local area population forecasts using a bi-regional cohort-component model without the need for local migration data

Wilson, T. (2022). Demographic Research. 46(32), 919-956

Research Publications

Causal and associational language in observational health research: A systematic evaluation

Haber, N.A., Wieten, S.E., Rohrer, J.M., Arah, O.A., Tennant, P.W.G., Stuart, E.A., Murray, E.J., Pilleron, S., Lam, S.T., Riederer, E., Howcutt, S.J., Simmons, A.E., Leyrat, C., Schoenegger, P., Booman, A., Kang, Dufour, M., O'Donoghue, A.L., Baglini, R., Do, S., De La Rosa Takashima, M., Evans, T.R., Rodriguez-Molina, D., Alsalti, T.M., Dunleavy, D.J., Meyerowitz-Katz, G., Antonietti, A., Calvache, J.A., Kelson, M.J., Salvia, M.G., Olarte, Parra, C., Khalatbari-Soltani, S., McLinden, T., Chatton, A., Seiler, J., Steriu, A., Alshihayb, T.S., Twardowski, S.E., Dabravolskaj, J., Au, E., Hoopsick, R.A., Suresh, S., Judd, N., Peña, S., Axfors, C., Khan, P., Rivera Aguirre, A.E., Odo, N.U., Schmid, I. and Fox, M.P. (2022). American Journal of Epidemiology

Dr Miguel Olivo-Villabrille
Working Papers

Return-to-Work Policies’ Clawback Regime and Labor Supply in Disability Insurance Programs

Arezou Zaresani and Miguel Olivo-Villabrille

Abstract: Exploiting a quasi-natural experiment and using administrative data, we examine the effects of the return-to-work policies’ clawback regime in Disability Insurance (DI) programs on beneficiaries’ labor supply decisions, allowing them to collect reduced DI payments while working. We compare two return-to-work policies: one with a single rate clawback regime and another featuring a more generous clawback regime, where a reform further increased its generosity. The reform caused an increase in the mean labor supply: beneficiaries who already work, work more, and those who did not work started working. The effects are heterogeneous by beneficiaries’ characteristics, and the increase is driven mainly by top percentiles of earnings. Findings suggest an essential role for the clawback regime in return-to-work policies and targeted policies to increase the labor supply in DI programs.

Keywords: disability insurance; clawback rate; return-to-work policy, financial incentives; labor supply.

 

Research Publications

Oral health-related quality of life of older Australian men

Wright, F.A.C., Shu, C.C., Cumming, R.G., Naganathan, V., Blyth, F.M., Hirani, V., Le Couteur, D.G., Handelsman, D.J., Seibel, M.J., Waite, L.M. and Stanaway, F.F. (2022). Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology. 1-11

Research Publications

Understanding and shaping the future of work with self-determination theory

Gagné, M., Parker, S. K., Griffin, M. A., Dunlop, P. D., Knight, C., Klonek, F. E., & Parent-Rocheleau, X. (2022).

Research Publications

Does social support predict increased use of dental services in older men?

Shu, C.C., Wright, F.A.C., Naganathan, V., Blyth, F.M., Le Couteur, D.G., Handelsman, D.J. and Stanaway, F.F. (2022). Australian Dental Journal

Research Publications

Generations, We Hardly Knew Ye: An Obituary

Rudolph, C. W., & Zacher, H. (2022). Group & Organization Management. 47(5)

Research Publications

The Impacts of Digital Technologies on Successful Aging in Non-Work and Work Domains: An Organizing Taxonomy

Sheng, N., Fang, Y., Shao, Y., Alterman, V., & Wang, M. (2022). Work, Aging and Retirement. 8(2), 198–207

Research Publications

Co-designing alternative frames of ageing and experiences of challenging ageism in Australia

Hausknecht, S., Clemson, L., O’Loughlin, K., McNab, J. & Low, L-F. (2022). Educational Gerontology. 49(1), 48-59

Research Publications

Disability burden due to musculoskeletal conditions and low back pain in Australia: findings from GBD 2019

de Luca, K., Briggs, A.M., French, S.D., Ferreira, M.L., Cross, M., Blyth, F. and March, L. (2022). Chiropractic & Manual Therapies. 30, 22

Research Publications

Including ethnic minorities in dementia research: Recommendations from a scoping review

Brijnath, B., Croy, S., Sabates, J., Thodis, A., Ellis, S., de Crespigny, F., Moxey, A., Day, R., Dobson, A., Elliott, C., Etherington, C., Geronimo, M.A., Hlis, D., Lampit, A., Low, L., Straiton, N. & Temple, J. (2022). Alzheimer's & Dementia: Translational Research & Clinical Interventions. 8(1), e12222

Research Publications

Age Stereotypes Do Matter: Looking Through the Lens of the Attraction-Selection-Attrition Model

Cadiz, D. M., Brady, G. M., Yaldiz, L. M., Zaniboni, S., & Truxillo, D. M. (2022). Work, Aging and Retirement. 8(4), 339-342

 

Research Publications

Cumulative risk, factor analysis, and latent class analysis of childhood adversity data in a nationally representative sample.

Lian, J., Kiely, K. M., & Anstey, K. J. (2022). Child Abuse & Neglect. (125), 105486

Research Publications

Considering potential benefits, as well as harms, from the COVID-19 disruption to cancer screening and other healthcare services

Bell, K.J.L., Stanaway, F.F., McCaffery, K., Shirley, M. and Carter, S.M. (2022). Public Health Research & Practice. 32122208

Research Publications

Flexible insurance for long-term care: A study of stated preferences

Wu, S., Bateman, H., Stevens, R., & Thorp, S. (2022). Journal of Risk and Insurance. 89(3), 823-858

Research Publications

The influence of adiposity on the interactions between strength, physical function and cognition among older adults in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study

Mundell N.L., Sethi P., Anstey K.J., Macpherson H., Dunstan D.W., Fraser S.F., Daly R.M. (2022). BMC Geriatrics. 22(1), 357

Research Publications

'Mapping Menstrual Leave Legislation and Policy Historically and Globally: A Labour Entitlement to Reinforce, Remedy or Revolutionize Gender Equality at Work?

Baird M., Hill E. and Colussi, S. (2021). Comparative Labor Law and Policy Journal. 42(1), 187-225

Research Publications

Innovating medication reviews through a technology-enabled process

Thiruchelvam, K., Byles, J., Hasan, S.S., Kairuz, T. (2021). Research in Social and Administrative Pharmacy. 18(4), 2700-2705

Research Publications

Engaging older workers: the role of a supportive psychological climate

Kilroy, S., Van de Voorde, K., Kooij, D., & van den Dungen, S. (2022). Journal of Organisational Effectiveness: People and Performance. 9(2), 336-351

Research Publications

Progression from Subjective Cognitive Decline to Mild Cognitive Impairment or Dementia: The Role of Baseline Cognitive Performance

Jester, D. J., Vyhnálek, M., Andel, R., Marková, H., Nikolai, T., Laczó, J., Matusková, V., Cechová, K., Sheardova, K., & Hort, J. (2022).  Journal of Alzheimer's disease. 86(4), 1763 – 1774

Research Publications

Target volatility strategies for group self-annuity portfolios

Olivieri, A., Thirurajah, S., & Ziveyi, J. (2022). ASTIN Bulletin. 52(2), 591-617

Research Publications

Toward Nonprobabilistic Explanations of Learning and Decision-Making

Szollosi, A., Donkin, C., and Newell, B. R. (2022). Psychological Review. 130(2), 546-568

Research Publications

Managing your Feelings at Work, for a Reason: The Role of Individual Motives in Affect Regulation for Performance-related Outcomes at Work

Bindl, U.K., Parker, S.K., Sonnentag, S. and Stride, C.B. (2022). Journal of Organizational Behaviour. 43(7), 1251-1270

 

Research Publications

Socioeconomic Inequalities in Elective and Nonelective Hospitalizations in Older Men

Peiyao Xu; Fiona M. Blyth; Vasi Naganathan; Robert G. Cumming; David J. Handelsman; Markus J. Seibel; David G. Le Couteur; Louise M. Waite; Saman Khalatbari-Soltani (2022). JAMA Network Open. 

Research Publications

Socioeconomic Inequalities in Elective and Nonelective Hospitalizations in Older Men

Peiyao Xu; Fiona M. Blyth; Vasi Naganathan; Robert G. Cumming; David J. Handelsman; Markus J. Seibel; David G. Le Couteur; Louise M. Waite; Saman Khalatbari-Soltani (2022). JAMA Network Open. 

Life-course Inequalities in Intrinsic Capacity among Chinese Older Adults
Working Papers

Life-course Inequalities in Intrinsic Capacity among Chinese Older Adults

Results: Yafei Si, Katja Hanewald, Shu Chen, Bingqin Li, Hazel Bateman abd John R. Beard

 

Abstract

Background: Maintaining and optimising intrinsic capacity (IC) across a person’s life course is a core component of the World Health Organization’s model of healthy ageing. However, the contribution of cumulative health inequalities over time to subtle changes in IC in late life is not well understood. 

Methods: We included 21,783 participants aged 45+ from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study and calculated a validated prognostic value of IC. We included eleven early-life factors to investigate their direct influence on IC over thirty years later and cumulative influence through four current socioeconomic factors. We used multivariable linear regression and concentration index decomposition to investigate the contributions of each determinant to IC inequalities. Mediation analysis identified the direct and cumulative contribution of early-life factors. 

Results: Participants with an advantaged environment in childhood and a higher current socioeconomic position had a significantly higher IC score. This inequality was greatest for cognitive capacity and sensory capacity. Overall, early-life factors directly explained 13.92% (95% CI: 12.07% to 15.77%) of IC inequalities, while 28.57% (95% CI: 28.19% to 28.95%) of IC inequalities were explained through the cumulative effects of socioeconomic inequalities over a person’s life course. 

Conclusion: In China, unfavourable early-life factors appear to directly decrease late-life health status, particularly cognitive and sensory capacities rather than locomotor functioning, psychological capacity or homeostasis, and these effects are exacerbated by the cumulative socioeconomic inequalities over a person’s life course. Interventions in early life and subsequently across the life course may be effective in reducing these disparities. 

Keywords: intrinsic capacity, healthy ageing, life course inequality, cognition, China

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Research Publications

The acceptability and usefulness of positive behaviour support education for family carers of people with frontotemporal dementia: a pilot study

Fisher, A., Cheung, S., O’Connor, C.M.C. and Piguet, O. (2022). Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry and Neurology. 36(1)

Research Publications

Emotional prosody recognition is impaired in Alzheimer's disease

Amlerova, J., Laczó, J., Nedelska, Z., Laczó, M., Vyhnálek, M., Zhang, B., Sheardova, K., Angelucci, F., Andel, R., & Hort, J. (2022). Alzheimer's research & therapy. 14(1), 50

Research Publications

Sex differences in Neuropsychiatric Symptoms in Alzheimer’s Disease Dementia – a meta-analysis

Eikelbroom, W., Pan, M., Ossenkoppele, R., Coesmans, M., Gatchel. J.R., Ismail, Z., Lanctot, K.L., Fischer, C.E., Mortby, M.E., van den Berg, E., and Papma, J.M. (2022). Alzheimer's Research & Therapy. 14(1),48

Research Publications

Macro-Demographics and Ageing in Emerging Asia: the Case of Indonesia.

Kudrna, G., Le, T., Piggott, J. (2022). Journal of Population Ageing.

Research Publications

Efficacy of interventions to reduce long term opioid treatment for chronic non-cancer pain: systematic review and meta-analysis

Avery, N., McNeilage, A., Stanaway, F., Ashton-James, C.E., Blyth, F.M., Martin, R., Gholamrezaei, A. and Glare, P. (2022). BMJ. 377, e066375

Research Publications

Control at Work: An Integrative, Lifespan-Informed Review

Rauvola, R. S., & Rudolph, C. W. (2022). Work, Aging and Retirement. 8(2), 117-145

Research Publications

Social Health Insurance: A Quantitative Exploration

Jung, J. and Tran, C. (2022). Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 139, 104374.

Research Publications

Whole-life career self-management: A conceptual framework

Hirschi, A., Zacher, H., & Shockley, K. M. (2022). Journal of Career Development. 49(2), 344-362

Research Publications

Action Regulation at the Work–Family Interface: Nomological Network and Work–Family Consequences

Hirschi, A., von Allmen, N., Burmeister, A., & Zacher, H. (2022). Journal of Business and Psychology. 37(2), 369-387

Research Publications

Cognitive functioning, financial literacy, and judgment in older age

Gerrans, P., Asher, A., & Earl, J. K. (2022). Accounting and Finance (Parkville). 62(s1), 1637-1674.

 

Research Publications

Non-pharmacological interventions for neuropsychiatric symptoms of dementia in residential aged care settings: An umbrella review

Koch J., Amos J.G., Beattie E., Lautenschlager N.T, Doyle C., Anstey K.J., Mortby M.E. (2022). International Journal of Nursing Studies. 128, 104187

Research Publications

Measuring education in the context of health inequalities

Khalatbari-Soltani, S., Maccora, J., Blyth, F.M., Joannès, C. and Kelly-Irving, M. (2022). International Journal of Epidemiology. 51(3), 701-708

Research Publications

Socioeconomic inequalities in elective and non-elective hospitalizations in older men

Xu, P., Blyth, F.M., Naganathan, V., Cumming, R.G., Handelsman, D.J., Seibel, M.J., Le Couteur, D.G., Waite, L.M. and Khalatbari-Soltani, S. (2022). JAMA Network Open. 5(4), e226398

Research Publications

Can Older Workers Stay Productive? The Role of ICT Skills and Training in Korea

 Lee, J-W., Kwak, D.W. and Song, E. (2022). Journal of Asian Economics. 79, 101438

Research Publications

Measuring Education in the Context of Health Inequalities

Saman Khalatbari-Soltani; Janet Maccora; Fiona M. Blyth; Camille Joannès; Michelle Kelly-Irving (2022). International Journal of Epidemiology.

Research Publications

Socioeconomic inequalities in elective and non-elective hospitalizations in older men

Xu, P., Blyth, F.M., Naganathan, V., Cumming, R.G., Handelsman, D.J., Seibel, M.J., Le Couteur, D.G., Waite, L.M. and Khalatbari-Soltani, S. (2022). JAMA Network Open. 5(4), e226398

Research Publications

Measuring education in the context of health inequalities

Khalatbari-Soltani, S., Maccora, J., Blyth, F.M., Joannès, C. and Kelly-Irving, M. (2022). International Journal of Epidemiology. dyac058

The Chinese Pension System
Working Papers

Retirement Eggs and Retirement Baskets

L.I. Dobrescu, A. Shanker, H. Bateman, B.R. Newell, and S. Thorp

Abstract: How do people save over their lifetime? Using a dynamic lifecycle model of saving and portfolio choice featuring risky labor income, housing, and safe and risky financial assets inside and outside pension plans with comprehensive choice architecture, we examine the behavior of members of an industry-wide retirement fund to assess how standard saving motives, pension defaults, investment returns, preferences and frictions interact to drive lifetime savings across major asset classes. Our results show considerable heterogeneity in what motivates people how to save. First, we find that financial and housing assets are largely driven by consumption smoothing motives. While these motives also affect plan choices, their role in pension accumulation is more limited due to default switching costs. Removing such costs, on the other hand, encourages pension savings at the expense of financial wealth but not of housing. In fact, we find higher pension assets to drive up housing wealth throughout the lifecycle, as people - anticipating a wealthier retirement and to avoid potentially larger adjustment costs later in life - lock in higher housing investments early on. Second, being luxury goods, bequest motives lead to higher DC take-up and riskier portfolios, but only to a modest mid-life financial savings boost. Third, precautionary savings that insure against wage risks have similar plan effects to bequests, although they do not translate in any wealth dynamic. Finally, removing costless redraws on mortgages leads to higher financial savings, again displacing pension balances considerably more than housing wealth.

Keywords: lifetime savings, portfolio choice, income risk, defaults, method of moments

 

Research Publications

Changes in dietary total and non-haem iron intake is associated with incident frailty in older men: The Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project

Luong, R., Ribeiro, R.V., Rangan, A., Naganathan, V., Blyth, F., Waite, L.M., Handelsman, D.J., Cumming, R.G., Le Couteur, D.G. and Hirani, V. (2022). J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. glac077

Research Publications

Blood pressure change and cognition in childhood and early adulthood: A systematic review

Lancaster, K., Xu, Y., Savage, G., Cysique, L. and Peters, R. (2022). Ther Adv Chronic Dis 

Research Publications

No clear associations between subjective memory concerns and subsequent change in cognitive function: the PATH through life study

Xu Y., Warwick J., Eramudugolla R., Huque H., Anstey K.J. and Peters R. (2022). European Journal of Ageing. 

cepar award
Working Papers

Dividend Imputation, Investment and Capital Accumulation in Open Economies

Chung Tran and Sebastian Wende
 
Abstract: A dividend imputation system is designed to address double taxation of capital income by allowing companies to pass profit taxes paid at the corporate level to shareholders in form of franking tax credits. In this paper, we study implications of divided imputation in a small open economy model with firm heterogeneity and an internationally integrated capital market. Our analysis indicates that dividend imputation has opposing effects on investment and capital accumulation. On one hand, it mitigates the adverse effects of double taxation and induces more saving and investment; on other hand, it raises the cost of investment for firms that are not fully imputed, which subsequently results in less investment. Moreover, different tax treatments for resident and foreign investors amplify frictions in reallocation of capital across firms, which prevents inflows of foreign capital from fully offsetting the shortage of domestic savings. International investors are not marginal investors in our small open economy setting. Overall, the net effect on capital accumulation is analytically ambiguous, depending on which force is dominant. Our quantitative results indicate that the positive force is dominant and removing dividend imputation leads to decreases in domestic savings, aggregate capital and output. Interestingly, the overall government transfers, while tax burdens are shifted towards high income households and foreign investors.
 
Keywords: Double taxation; Franking tax credit; Firm heterogeneity; Overlapping generations; Open economy; Dynamic general equilibrium; Welfare.
Research Publications

Community-based pain programs commissioned by primary health networks: key findings from an online survey and consultation with program managers

De Morgan, S., Walker, P., Blyth, F.M., Nicholas, M. and Wilson, A. (2022). Australian Journal of Primary Health

Age-Related Disease Burdens, Disparities, and Health Resource Allocation: A Longitudinal Data Analysis of 31 Provinces in Mainland China
Working Papers

Age-Related Disease Burdens, Disparities, and Health Resource Allocation: A Longitudinal Data Analysis of 31 Provinces in Mainland China

Shu Chen, Yafei Si, Katja Hanewald, Bingqin Li, Hazel Bateman, Xiaochen Dai, Chenkai Wu, and Shenglan Tang

Abstract:

Background: Measuring chronological age alone does not provide sufficient context for understanding the impact of ageing on societal resource planning. The burden of age-related diseases (ARDs) reflects age-related morbidity and mortality at the population level, which unveils the underlying health burden of ageing. The current study aims to measure the ARD burden and its disparities at subnational level of China, a rapidly ageing country with regional imbalances in economic and health development, and assess the impact of health resource allocation on this burden.

Methods: We used the longitudinal data collected from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 and 2019 to measure the ARD burden in 31 provinces in mainland China, and from China Statistical and Health Statistical Yearbooks for health resources and socio-economic indicators from 2010 to 2016. We first identified the ARDs, defined as diseases with incidence rates that increased quadratically with age, and calculated the burden as the sum of the disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of the ARDs. We further compared the disparities in the ARD burden by province, sex, and disease group, based on the ARD burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The ARD burden-adjusted age for each province was also calculated by assuming each province shared the same age-specific burden rate as the national average. Historical changes in burden between 1990 and 2016 were assessed after standardising the age structure. Total health expenditures per capita, total health professional density, licensed doctor density, and licensed nurse density were used as proxy indicators for health resources. Panel data analysis approach was used to assess the impact of these indicators on the burden of ARDs from 2010 to 2016 based on multivariate regression models.

Findings: NCDs accounted for over 90% of China’s total ARD burden in 2019. There were significant regional disparities: the rate of ARD burden was lowest in the south-eastern coast provinces, followed by the central provinces, and trailed by the north-eastern and western provinces. In 2016, the ARD burden-adjusted ages of Shanghai, Beijing, and Zhejiang were the youngest, at 30·86, 30·90 and 36·21 years, respectively. In contrast, the respective ARD burden- adjusted ages of Sichuan, Heilongjiang, and Chongqing were 66·39, 66·14, and 62·98. After standardising the age structure, Tibet, Qinghai, Guizhou, and Xinjiang had the highest burden of ARDs and oldest ARD burden-adjusted age. Males are disproportionately affected by ARDs, with burden rate 70% higher than females. China’s overall age-standardised ARD burden has been decreasing since 1990. The largest decline was observed in the eastern provinces, followed by the central and western provinces. However, the burden rate of neurological disorders has continued to increase, albeit only by a small amount. Panel regression results showed increasing either health expenditures or health workforce density could not significantly lower the ARD burden. However, the existing urban-rural gap in health workforce density was positively associated with a consistent increase in the ARD burden. A 100% increase in the urban-rural ratio in total health professional density, licensed doctor density, and licensed nurse density led to 2·55% (p=0·09; 95% CI: -0·42, 5·53), 2·29% (p=0·07; 95% CI: -0·24, 4·80), and 2.21% (p=0·08; 95% CI: -0·31, 4·73) increases in the ARD burden respectively, ceteris paribus.

Interpretation: Older demographic structure does not necessarily mean higher ageing-related health burden. Resource planning for an ageing society should consider the burden of ARDs. In China, concerted efforts should be made to reduce the ARDs burden and its disparities, especially among western provinces which face greatest health threat due to future ageing. Continued investment in health is useful. Particularly, health workforce supply should be deliberately biased toward rural areas in western provinces.

 

Research Publications

Socioeconomic Position and Pain: A Topical Review.

Khalatbari-Soltani, S., and Blyth, F.M. (2022). PAIN.

Research Publications

A visit with Viv: Empathising with a digital human character embodying the lived experiences of dementia

Papadopoulos, C., Kenning, G., Bennett, J., Kuchelmeister, V., Ginnivan, N., & Neidorf, M. (2021). Dementia. 20(7), 2462-2477.

 

Research Publications

Is the Rise in Reported Dementia Mortality Real? Analysis of Multiple Cause of Death Data for Australia and the United States

Adair T., Temple J., Anstey K.J. and Lopez A.D.  (2022). American Journal of Epidemiology. 191(7), 1270-1279

Mike Sherris CEPAR
Working Papers

Insuring Longevity Risk and Long-term Care: Bequest, Housing and Liquidity

Mengyi Xu, Jennifer Alonso Garcia, Michael Sherris, and Adam W. Shao

Abstract: We study the impact of housing wealth and individual preferences on demand for annuities and long-term care insurance (LTCI). We build a multi-state lifecycle model that includes longevity risk and health shocks. The preference is represented by a recursive utility function that separates risk aversion and elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS). When health shocks are considered, a higher level of risk aversion lowers the annuity demand, while a lower level of the EIS has the opposite effect. The impact diminishes with a weaker bequest motive, more liquid wealth, or access to LTCI, all of which increase the demand for annuities. The presence of home equity can enhance annuity demand, but the enhancement is marginal when the LTCI is available. The presence of home equity has a crowding-out effect on LTCI demand, and the effect is strengthened by a lack of bequest motives or a lower degree of risk aversion. The cash poor but asset rich may demand more LTCI coverage than their renter counterparts to preserve bequests. When both life annuities and the LTCI are available, we find that the product demand is robust to changes in risk aversion and the EIS, providing insights into product designs that bundle annuities and LTCI.

Keywords: Recursive utility, Housing, Life annuities, Long-term care insurance, Lifecycle model

 

Research Publications

How Well-Designed Work Makes Us Smarter.

Parker, S. K., and Fisher, G. G. (2022). MIT Sloan Management Review.

Research Publications

Inability of the Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE) and High-Contrast Visual Acuity to Identify Unsafe Drivers

Eramudugolla R., Laird M., Black A.A., Cameron I.D., Wood J.M. and Anstey, K.J. (2022). Accident Analysis & Prevention. 168, 106595

George Kudrna
Working Papers

The Economy-wide Effects of Mandating Private Retirement Incomes

George Kudrna

Abstract: This paper investigates the economy-wide effects of mandating private (employment- related) pensions. It draws on the Australian experience with its Superannuation Guarantee legislation which mandates contributions to private retirement (superannuation) accounts. Our key objective is to quantify the long-run implications of alternative mandatory superannuation contribution rates for household economic decisions over the life cycle, household welfare, and macroeconomic and fiscal aggregates. To that end, we develop a stochastic, overlapping generations (OLG) model with labor choice and endogenous retirement, which distinguishes between (i) ordinary private (liquid) assets and (ii) superannuation (illiquid) assets. The benchmark model is calibrated to the Australian economy, fitted to Australian demographic, household survey and macroeconomic data, and accounting for a detailed representation of Australia’s government policy, including its mandatory superannuation system. The model is then applied to simulate the effects of alternative mandatory superannuation contribution rates, with a specific focus on the counterfactual of a legislated future rate of 12% of gross wages. Based on the model simulations, we show that in the long run, this increased mandate generates larger average household wealth, output and consumption per capita and (rational) household welfare across income distribution.

Keywords: Private Pension, Social Security, Income Taxation, Labor Supply, Endogenous Retirement, Stochastic General Equilibrium

Research Publications

Pain, Work, and the Workplace: A Topical Review

Wainwright, Elainea; Bevan, Steven; Blyth, Fiona M.; Khalatbari-Soltani, Saman; Sullivan, Michael J.L.; Walker-Bone, Karen; Eccleston, Christopher (2022). PAIN.

Research Publications

The curvilinear effect of perceived overqualification on constructive voice: The moderating role of leader consultation and the mediating role of work engagement

Duan, J., Xia, Y., Xu, Y., & Wu, C. H. (2022).  Human Resource Management. 61(4), 489-510

Insurance
Working Papers

Lifecycle Earnings Risk and Insurance: New Evidence from Australia

Darapheak Tin and Chung Tran

Abstract: We study the nature of lifecycle earnings dynamics by documenting higher-order moments of earnings shocks over the lifecycle, using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey 2001-2020. Similar to other countries (e.g. see Guvenen et al. (2021) and De Nardi et al. (2021)), the distribution of earnings shocks in Australia displays negative skewness and excess kurtosis, deviating from the conventional linearity and normality assumptions. However, the sources of fluctuations and the role of family and government insurance are quite different. Wages account more for the dispersion of earnings shocks (second-order risk), while hours drive the negative skewness and excess kurtosis (third- and fourth-order risks, respectively). Wage changes are strongly associated with earnings changes, whereas hour changes are largely absent in upward movement and relatively small in downward movement of earnings changes. Family insurance via pooling income of family members and adjusting labor market activities of secondary earners, and government insurance embedded in the progressive tax and transfer system play distinct roles in reducing risks over age and by income group. Government insurance is more important in mitigating the dispersion of earnings shocks; meanwhile, family insurance is more dominant in mitigating the magnitude and likelihood of extreme and rare shocks. Family insurance interacts with government insurance; however, their joint forces fail to eliminate the non-Gaussian and non-linear features. Furthermore, comparison between groups reveals: (i) the risk equalizing effect of government insurance, and (ii) the persistent nature of risks for certain demographics such as female heads of household and non-parents. Hence, our findings shed new insights into the complexity of earnings dynamics and the importance of family and government insurance.

Keywords: Income dynamics; Earnings risk; Higher-order moments; Non-Gaussian shocks; Family insurance; Government insurance; Inequality.

 

Research Publications

Understanding the role of job quality in the association of employees’ career change to self-employment and job satisfaction

Shu, S., Wang, Y., Kang, H., Wu, C. H., & Arenius, P. (2022). Personnel Review

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Who displays dementia-related stigma and what does the general public know about dementia? Findings from a nationally representative survey

Kim S., Anstey K.J. and Mortby M.E. (2022). Aging & Mental Health. 

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Application of Andersen–Newman model to assess cataract surgery uptake among older Australian women: findings from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health (ALSWH)

Hambisa, M.T., Dolja-Gore, X. & Byles, J. (2022). Aging Clinical and Experimental Research. 34, 1673–1685

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Diastolic Blood Pressure Variability in Later Life May Be a Key Risk Marker for Cognitive Decline

Peters R., Xu Y., Eramudugolla R., Sachdev P.S., Cherbuin N., Tully P.J., Mortby M.E., Anstey K.J. (2022). Hypertension. 79(5), 1037–1044

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Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy.

Mason, A., Lee, R. and members of the NTA Network, including Rice, J.M. (2022). Population and Development Review. 

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Efficacy, safety, and dose-dependence of the analgesic effects of opioid therapy for people with osteoarthritis: systematic review and meta-analysis

Abdel Shaheed, C., Awal, W., Zhang, G., Gilbert, S.E., Gallacher, D., McLachlan, A., O Day, R., Ferreira, G.E., Jones, C.M.P., Ahedi, H., Tamraker, M., Blyth, F.M., Stanaway, F. and Maher, C.G.  (2022). MJA. 216(6), 305-311

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Longevity is not an ingredient of successful aging as self-reported by community-dwelling older adults: a scoping review

Bhattacharyya, K. K., Molinari, V., & Andel, R. (2022). Aging & Mental Health. 1-13

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The Future of Work: Emerging Risks and Opportunities for Health and Well-Being

Parker, S. K. (2022). Safety and Health at Work. 13(s-10)

Research Publications

The short- and long-term effects of dietary patterns on cardio- metabolic health in adults aged 65 years or older: a systematic review

Luong, R., Ribeiro, R., Cunningham, J., Chen, S. and Hirani, V. (2022). Nutrition Reviews. 80(3), 329-350

Research Publications

Age and sickness absence: Testing physical health issues and work engagement as countervailing mechanisms in a cross-national context

Shao, Y., Gostautaite, B., Wang, M., & Ng, T. W. H. (2022). Personnel Psychology. 75(4), 895-927

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The effect of China's Clean Air Act on cognitive function in older adults: a population-based, quasi-experimental study

Yao Yao, M.D., Xiaozhen, L.V., Chengxuan, Q., Jiajianghui, L., Xiao, W., Hao, Z., et al. (2022). The Lancet Healthy Longevity. 3(2), E98-E108

Children matter: Global imbalances and the economics of demographic transition
Working Papers

Children matter: Global imbalances and the economics of demographic transition

Tsendsuren Batsuuri

Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of child dependency on the economy and external imbalances under an asymmetric demographic and productivity transition within a lifecycle model. It embeds dependent children within a two-country model with lifecycle features to examine child dependency’s effect on the economy and external imbalances. Specifically, the paper compares the effects of the same fertility and mortality shocks across models with and without children. Simulations show that child dependency changes both the steady-state and the transition dynamics under a demographic shock. The paper finds that while child dependency changes the direction of the impact of the fertility transition on external imbalances in the short run, it changes the magnitude of the effects in the long run. Furthermore, the model comparison shows that parameters must be chosen differently across models with and without child dependency to start from the same interest rate in the steady-state. Different calibration affects the magnitude of the transition dynamics of different models. These findings illustrate the importance of considering child dependency in studies that seek to explain the historical contribution of demographic changes to external imbalances, and suggest to approach studies that use models without child dependency for this purpose with caution.

Keywords: Global imbalances,Trade imbalances, Demographic transition, Life-cycle model

 

Research Publications

Strength and Vulnerability: Indirect Effects of Age on Changes in Occupational Well-Being Through Emotion Regulation and Physiological Disease

Zacher, H., & Rudolph, C. W. (2022). Psychology and Aging. 37(3), 357–370

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A guide for medical practitioners transitioning to an encore career or retirement

Wijeratne, C., & Earl, J. (2022). Medical Journal of Australia. 216(2), 106-106

Research Publications

Aging At Work and Retirement: Only a Success Story?

Rudolph, C. W., & Zacher, H. (2022). The Gerontologist. 62(1), 142-144

Research Publications

Multifaceted Demands of Work and Cognitive Functioning: Findings From the Health and Retirement Study

Lee, Y. J., Gonzales, E., & Andel, R. (2022). The Journals of Gerontology. Series B, Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences. 77(2), 351–361

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Stimulating job crafting behaviours of older workers: The influence of opportunity-enhancing human resource practices and psychological empowerment

Kooij, D.T.A.M., De Lange, A. H., & Van De Voorde, K, (2022). European Journal of Work and Organisational Psychology. 31(1), 22-34

Research Publications

Age stereotypes towards younger and older colleagues in registered nurses and supervisors in a university hospital: A generic qualitative study

Helaß, M., Greinacher, A., Götz, S., Müller, A., Gündel, H., Junne, F., Nikendei, C., & Maatouk, I. (2022). Journal of Advanced Nursing. 78(2), 471–485

Research Publications

Do cognitively stimulating activities affect the association between retirement timing and cognitive functioning in old age?

Baumann, I., Eyjólfsdóttir, H. S., Fritzell, J., Lennartsson, C., Darin-Mattsson, A., Kåreholt, I., Andel, R., Dratva, J., & Agahi, N. (2022). Ageing and Society. 42(2), 306–330

George Kudrna
Working Papers

Extending Pension Policy in Emerging Asia: An Overlapping- Generations Model Analysis for Indonesia

George Kudrna, John Piggott and Phitawat Poonpolkul

Abstract: This paper examines the economy-wide effects of government policies to extend public pensions in emerging Asia - particularly pertinent given the region's large informal sector and rapid population ageing. We first document stylized facts about Indonesia's labour force, drawing on the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS). This household survey is then used to calibrate micro behaviours in a stochastic, overlapping-generations (OLG) model with formal and informal labour. The benchmark model is calibrated to the Indonesian economy (2000- 2019), fitted to Indonesian demographic, household survey, macroeconomic and fiscal data. The model is applied to simulate pension policy extensions targeted to formal labour (contributory pension extensions to all formal workers with formal retirement age increased from 55 to 65), as well as to informal labour (introduction of non-contributory social pensions to informal 65+). First, abstracting from population ageing, we show that: (i) the first set of pension policy extensions (that have already been legislated and are being implemented in Indonesia) have positive effects on consumption, labour supply and welfare (of formal workers) (due largely to the formal retirement age extension); (ii) the introduction of social pensions targeted to informal workers at older age generates large welfare gains for currently living informal elderly; and (iii) the overall pension reform leads to higher welfare across the employment-skill distribution of households. We then extend the model to account for demographic transition, finding that the overall pension reform makes the contributory pension system more sustainable but the fiscal cost of non-contributory social pensions more than triples to 1.7% of GDP in the long run. As an alternative, we examine application of a means- tested social pension system within the overall pension reform. We show that this counterfactual reduces the fiscal cost (of social pensions) and further increases the welfare for both current and future generations.

Keywords: Informal Labour, Population Ageing, Social Security, Taxation, Redistribution, Stochastic General Equilibrium.

Research Publications

Reducing demands or optimizing demands? Effects of cognitive appraisal and autonomy on job crafting to change one’s work demands

Zhang, F., & Parker, S. K. (2022). European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology. 31(5), 641-654

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The importance of relational work design characteristics: A person-centred approach

Knight, C., McLarnon, M. J., Wenzel, R., & Parker, S. (2022). Australian Journal of Management. 47(4), 705–728

Research Publications

Residential aged care staff perceptions and responses towards neuropsychiatric symptoms: a mixed methods analysis of electronic healthcare records

Eikelboom W.S., Koch J., Beattie E., Lautenschlager N.T., Doyle C., van den Berg E., Papma J.M., Anstey K.J. and Mortby M.E. (2022). Aging & Mental Health. 

Research Publications

Looking Beyond Hours of Care: The Effects of Care Strain on Work Withdrawal Among Australian Workers

Constantin, A.,Hamilton, M., Zettna, N., Baird, M., Dinale, D., Gulesserian, L. and Williams, A. (2021). International Journal of Care and Caring

Research Publications

Alcohol consumption as a predictor of mortality and life expectancy: Evidence from older Chinese males

Yu D, Lu B. and Piggott J. (2022). The Journal of the Economics of Ageing. 22, 100368

Long-term care insurance financing using home equity release: Evidence from an online experimental survey
Working Papers

Long-term care insurance financing using home equity release: Evidence from an online experimental survey

Katja Hanewald, Hazel Bateman, Hanming Fang  and Tin Long Ho

Abstract: This paper explores new mechanisms to fund long-term care using housing wealth. Using data from an online experimental survey fielded to a sample of 1,200 Chinese homeowners aged 45-64, we assess the potential demand for new financial products that allow individuals to access their housing wealth to buy long-term care insurance. We find that access to housing wealth increases the stated demand for long-term care insurance. When they could only use savings, participants used on average 5% of their total (hypothetical) wealth to purchase long-term care insurance. When they could use savings and a reverse mortgage, participants used 15% of their total wealth to buy long-term care insurance. With savings and home reversion, they used 12%. Reverse mortgages do not require regular payments until the home is sold, while home reversion involves a partial sale and leaseback. Our results inform the design of new public or private sector programs that allow individuals to access their housing wealth while still living in their homes.

Keywords: Long-term care insurance, housing, reverse mortgages, home reversion, China

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Research Publications

Inclusive human resource management in freelancers’ employment relationships: The role of organizational needs and freelancers’ psychological contracts

van den Groenendaal, S. M., Freese, C., Poell, R. F., & Kooij, D. (2022). Human Resource Management Journal. 31(1), 224-240

Research Publications

Reducing the Risk of Cognitive Decline and Dementia: WHO Recommendations

Chowdhary N., Barbui C., Anstey K.J., Kivipelto M., Barbera M., Peters R., Zheng L., Kulmala J., Stephen R., Ferri C.P., Joanette Y., Wang H., Comas-Herrera A., Alessi C., Suharya Dy K., Mwangi K.J., Petersen R.C., Motala A.A., Mendis S., Prabhakaran D., Bibi Mia Sorefan A., Dias A., Gouider R., Shahar S., Ashby-Mitchell K., Prince M. and Dua T. (2022). Frontiers in Neurology. 

Research Publications

Perceived overqualification, felt organizational obligation, and extra‐role behavior during the COVID‐19 crisis: The moderating role of self‐sacrificial leadership

Wu, C. H., Weisman, H., Sung, L. K., Erdogan, B., & Bauer, T. N. (2022). Applied Psychology. 71(3), 983-1013

Research Publications

Behavioral Health Diagnoses and Health Care Use Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Valdes, E. G., Gorman, J. M., Ren, Y., Bowling, M., Steiner, L., Bethea, J., Aamar, R., Andel, R., & Reist, C. (2022). Psychiatric services. 71(1), 801-804

Research Publications

Urban Neighbourhood Environments, Cardiometabolic Health and Cognitive Function: A National Cross-Sectional Study of Middle-Aged and Older Adults in Australia

Cerin E., Barnett A., Shaw J.E., Martino E., Knibbs L.D., Tham R., Wheeler A.J. and Anstey K.J. (2022). Toxics. 10(1), 23

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Evaluating alternative implementations of the Hamilton-Perry model for small area population forecasts: the case of Australia

Wilson, T. and Grossman, I. (2022). Spatial Demography. 10(1), 1-31

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Reciprocal relationships between subjective age and retirement intentions

Nagy, N., Rudolph, C. W., & Zacher, H. (2022). European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology. 31(4), 583-595

Research Publications

Dementia Risk Scores and Their Role in the Implementation of Risk Reduction Guidelines

Anstey, K.J., Zheng, L., Peters, R., Kootar, S., Barbera, M., Stephen, R., Dua, T., Chowdhary, N., Solomon, A. and Kivipelto, M. (2022). Frontiers in Neurology

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At-Home arts program a ‘prescription’ for wellbeing

O’Connor, C., Poulos, R., Heldon, M., Barclay, L., Beattie, E. and Poulos, C. (2022). Australian Journal of Dementia Care. 11(1), 20-22

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Examining the relationship between childhood adversity and mental health in older adults

Lian, J., Kiely, K. M., & Anstey, K. J. (2022). International journal of epidemiology. 50, Supplement 1 (dyab168-385)