Jennifer Alonso-García, Michael Sherris, Samuel Thirurajah and Jonathan Ziveyi

Abstract: This paper considers variable annuity contracts embedded with guaranteed minimum accumulation benefit (GMAB) riders when policyholder's proceeds are taxed. These contracts promise the return of the premium paid by the policyholder, or a higher stepped up value, at the end of the investment period. A partial differential valuation framework, which exploits the numerical method of lines, is used to determine fair fees that render the policyholder and insurer profits neutral. Two taxation regimes are considered; one where capital gains are allowed to offset losses and a second where gains do not offset losses, reflecting  stylized institutional arrangements in Australia and the US respectively. Most insurance providers highlight the tax-deferred feature of a variable annuity. We show that the regime under which the insurance provider is taxed significantly impacts  supply and demand prices. If losses are allowed to offset gains then this enhances the market, narrowing the gap between fees, and even producing higher demand than supply fees. On the other hand, when losses are not allowed  to offset gains, then the demand-supply gap increases. When charging the demand price, we show that insurance companies would be profitable on average. Low (high) Sharpe ratios are not as profitable as policyholders are more likely to stay long (surrender).

Keywords: taxation; retirement income;  policyholder behavior;  pricing;  method of lines;  surrender;  variable annuity

Monisankar Bishnu, Shresth Garg, Tishara Garg and Tridip Ray

Abstract:In presence of imperfections in education loan market, the standard policy response of intervening solely on education front, funded through taxes and transfers, necessarily hurts the initial working population. The literature suggests compensating them via pay-as-you-go pensions as a possible solution. But for various reasons sustainability of PAYG pensions is under serious doubt. We carry out the optimal policy exercise of a utilitarian government in a dynamically ecient economy with pension and education support obeying the Pareto criterion. We find that expansion of one instrument along with the other emerges as the optimal response, however, once the complete market level of education is achieved, the optimal policy suggests phasing pensions out. Eventually, government leads the economy to an equilibrium with zero pension and the Golden Rule level of education. This is achieved by exploiting only market opportunities without relying on other factors including human capital externalities, general equilibrium effects or socio-political factors.

Keywords: Public education; PAYG pension; intergenerational transfers; welfare state

Joydeep Bhattacharya, Monisankar Bishnu and Min Wang

Abstract: This paper studies the welfare of time-inconsistent, partially sophisticated agents living un- der two different regimes, one with complete, unfettered credit markets (CM) and the other with endogenous borrowing constraints (EBC) where the borrowing limits are set to make agents indifferent between defaulting and paying back their unsecured loans. The CM regime cannot deliver the first best because partially sophisticated agents would undo plans laid out by previous selves and borrow too much. Somewhat counterintuitively, in some cases, the EBC regime may deliver higher welfare than the CM regime. These results speak to the aca- demic debate surrounding the creation and functioning of the CFPB (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau) in the U.S. and its implementation of the ability-to-repay rule on lenders after the 2007-8 crisis. Such institutions generate commitment publicly and may help time- inconsistent agents economize on the costs of private commitment provision.

Keywords: endogenous borrowing constraints, overborrowing, financial protection

Olivia S. Mitchell

Abstract: In the wake of the global pandemic known as COVID-19, retirees, along with those hoping to retire someday, have been shocked into a new awareness of the need for better risk management tools to handle longevity and aging. This paper offers an assessment of the status quo prior to the spread of the coronavirus, evaluates how retirement systems are faring in the wake of the shock. Next we examine insurance and financial market products that may render retirement systems more resilient for the world’s aging population. Finally, potential roles for policymakers are evaluated.

Keywords: COVID-19, retirement, financial market, aging population

Rafal Chomik

The health impacts of COVID-19 have been modest in Australia compared to elsewhere. But as restrictions ease and the economy reopens, the risks of infection, morbidity, and job loss will require caution. Live data suggests that unemployment impacts may be considerable.

Such risks are shared unequally across locations, occupations, and industries. A key driver of differences is age and socioeconomic status. For example, areas with less healthy populations - where a resurgence in COVID-19 could wreack the most havoc - tend to be either older, poorer, or both.

Occupations with greatest exposure to infection tend to be low wage, and often held by older women. And, while older workers have so far seen lower rates of job loss than younger workers, historic data suggests that they are twice as likely to become inactive after a spell of unemployment. Such multi-dimensional risks need balanced and informed responses.

To this end, this fact sheet documents the demographic distribution of different health and economic risks across the Australian population, paying particular attention to older groups (aged 55+).

Shang Wu, Hazel Bateman, Ralph Stevens and Susan Thorp 

Abstract: We study stated preferences for long-term care insurance that pays income instead of reimbursing formal care costs. Our results show that long-term care income insurance is likely to provide two important benefits to aging societies. First, it can facilitate flexible, informal, long-term care - seniors who plan to rely on family members for extensive care find income insurance particularly attractive. Second, it can enhance risk-pooling - if long-term care income insurance were available, many seniors would release funds set aside to self-insure long-term care risk and purchase additional longevity insurance. Our results rule out adverse selection into the long-term care income insurance product on objective risk factors but show both adverse and advantageous selection effects on private information. We conclude that a flexible insurance product that supports informal care has both demand- and supply-side advantages over typical expense-reimbursement cover.

Keywords: Long-term care insurance; aged care; informal care; retirement incomes; annuity demand, online experiment.

Click here to download the online appendix. 

James Mahmud Rice, Jeromey B. Temple and Peter F. McDonald

Abstract: Inequality between generations is a central feature of human societies. Moreover, many institutions have developed within human societies that mould and shape intergenerational inequality, including the state. Nevertheless, intergenerational inequality remains ill-defined as a concept and is rarely directly measured empirically. This paper examines intergenerational inequality – in particular, intergenerational inequality in income. In order to provide greater definition to the concept of intergenerational inequality, the paper introduces a new measure of intergenerational inequality: the IGI index. With this new index added to its methodological toolkit, the paper examines the empirical evidence on intergenerational inequality in income, as well as how the state works to alter intergenerational inequality through the redistributive effect of public transfers. The empirical evidence examined is drawn from the recently developed Australian National Transfer Accounts, which include data on the incomes and public transfers paid and received by different ages and generations in Australia during the 28-year time period between 1981–82 and 2009–10. The analyses presented suggest that there are substantial inequalities in the incomes received by different generations, with earlier generations generally receiving less income in real terms over their lifetimes than later generations. As the state has operated through time – receiving public transfers from some individuals and paying public transfers to others – it has worked to increase intergenerational inequality. This implies that the state has worked to decrease the incomes of earlier generations relative to those of later generations. In this way, the state could be described as exhibiting a bias in favour of later generations.

Keywords: Australia, government, income, inequality, intergenerational transfers, life cycle

Bruce Chapman and John Piggott

Abstract: The JobKeeper scheme aims to provide financial assistance to those in danger of being laid off, and to assist business to stay afloat until more familiar economic and employment activity resumes. In financial terms, it is very significant: relative to population and GDP, it is the largest wage-subsidy scheme in the world. A critical issue, not so far addressed in public discussion, is how the initiative might be phased out when the economy recovers, in a way that facilitates the survival of business while at the same time minimising further fiscal outlays, and avoiding continuing to subsidise businesses that may not in normal times be viable.

This short paper addresses the question of how the JobKeeper program might be wound down at the end of its full subsidy term.

Keywords: Jobkeeper, debt model, COVID-19, policy structure, financial assistance

Weifeng Liu 

Abstract: Per capita carbon emissions are an important concept in international negotiations of climate policies and also in future projections of aggregate carbon emissions. This paper argues that the convergence studies on per capita carbon emissions in the literature are theoretically biased because demographic structure is not considered. The paper therefore links demographic change to carbon convergence analysis and examines historical convergence of per capita carbon emissions for a global sample of countries over the period of 1960-2014. The results show that although demographic structure does not change the existence of carbon convergence, the growth of worker shares is significant in most estimations in this paper, and it also affects the estimates of the convergence speed. The time period of empirical analysis also matters for the convergence results. The paper further extends the IPAT identity by introducing demographic structure as well as economic and energy structure, and argues that the convergence of per capita carbon emissions depends on the convergence of each component, and each component may converge within different time horizons. The paper proposes that emissions rights should be allocated across countries based on a mix of long-term, medium-term and short-term rules.

Keywords: Demographic change, carbon emissions, climate change, convergence analysis, IPAT

Weifeng Liu and Warwick McKibbin

Abstract: The world has been experiencing dramatic demographic change since the 1950s, with almost all countries facing ageing challenges this coming century. However, the timing and speed of this demographic transition are significantly asymmetric across countries. This paper examines the impacts of global demographic change on macroeconomic conditions, international trade, and capital flows in major economies in a global multi-region and multi-sector general equilibrium model. We separately simulate demographic shocks in six regions of the world economy to understand how each shock individually affects the world economy and then combine these shocks to obtain the consequences of global demographic change. The paper finds that future demographic change will have significant impacts on each region’s GDP, which will change the landscape of the world economy. However, the spillover effects on GDP across countries are relatively small. In young economies such as emerging Asia and Africa, while economic growth will significantly benefit from demographic dividends, demographic change does not improve per capita GDP. In ageing economies such as Japan and Europe, population ageing will decrease the real interest rate. However, this impact will be offset by rising interest rates in young economies. Due to the differential real interest rates, capital will flow from more ageing to less ageing economies. These capital flows can be substantial and beneficial for all economies.

Keywords: Global demographic change, consumption, investment, international capital flows, international trade, current account balances, DSGE, CGE, heterogeneous agents, G-Cubed

Weifeng Liu and Phitawat Poonpolkul

Abstract: This paper provides a framework to endogenize rates of return for risk-free bonds and risky capital in an overlapping generation model. The rate of return on capital is endogenized by introducing idiosyncratic production shocks to avoid computation challenges associated with aggregate production shocks in the literature. The framework enables the interaction between financial markets and macroeconomic conditions in a production economy. Based on this framework, the paper first examines life-cycle portfolio choice without demographic change, and illustrates that several factors such as borrowing costs, labor income and production risk play important roles in life-cycle portfolios. The paper then investigates the impacts of population aging on macroeconomic conditions, life-cycle behaviors and financial market structures. The results show that population aging leads to higher capital-labor ratios, and reduces the rates of return on both assets. The bond market shrinks significantly, and capital decreases if the fertility rate declines but increases if the mortality rate declines, leading to structural change in financial markets. The impacts on life-cycle variables are quite different in the fertility and mortality cases particularly at the late stage of life.

Keywords: Demographic change, portfolio choice, financial market structure, risk premium, idiosyncratic production shock, overlapping generation model.

Wei Zheng, Youji Lyu, Ruo Jia and Katja Hanewald

Abstract: We study how pension participation and expected pension benefits affect the consumption of working-age adults based on a nationally representative dataset from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study during the period 2011–2015. We find that working-age adults covered by the Employees’ Basic Pension, a compulsory public pension scheme for employees in the formal sector, have a consumption rate (total consumption to permanent income) that is 29.9 percentage points higher than those who do not participate in any public pension scheme. However, the Residents’ Basic Pension, a low-benefit voluntary public pension scheme for other residents, only promotes the consumption of working-age adults with a low income. Focusing on pension participants, we find that if working-age adults’ expected replacement rate (expected pension benefits at retirement to permanent income) increases by one percentage point, their consumption rate will increase by three percentage points. Working-age adults who are older, poorer, or live in a rural area increase their consumption more in response to the expected replacement rate. Nondurable consumption is more responsive to the expected replacement rate than durable consumption. Overall, our findings suggest that pension expectations are critical to the consumption decisions of working-age adults and can, therefore, affect total consumption.

Keywords: Pension, Replacement rate, Consumption, Retirement, Aging

George Kudrna, Chung Tran and Alan Woodland

A means-tested pension system has a distinct feature that tailors the level of pension benefits according to individual status. In the context of population aging with widening gaps in life expectancies, this feature generates an automatic adjustment mechanism that mitigates the pressing fiscal cost of an old-age public pension program (fiscal stabilization device) and redistributes pension benefits to those in need with shorter life expectancies.

Keywords: Population Ageing, Sustainability, Social Security, Means Testing, Redistribution, Automatic Stabilizer, Overlapping Generations, Dynamic General Equilibrium.

Various CEPAR staff and affiliates contributed to this submission.
Major contributors were Katja Hanewald and John Piggott.

Various CEPAR staff and affiliates contributed to this submission.
Major contributors included: Hazel Bateman, Rafal Chomik, Marc de Cure, Michael Keane, George Kudrna, John Piggott, Michael Sherris, and Alan Woodland

This submission was prepared for the Retirement Income Review.

There is an established evidence base to draw on

• Australia will continue to grow, with significant skill-based immigration and a stable fertility rate of about 1.7 to 1.8, which in combination will generate a steady increase in population, a slow rate of ageing, and modest per capita real income growth;
• Interest rates will remain low in the medium to long term and investment returns may decline from historic averages along with some declines in productivity growth;
• Life expectancy will continue to increase, but probably at a reduced rate in the longer term;
• The mortality gradient will likely remain, and possibly increase, especially at mature ages (see Retirement Brief 2, Fig 4G and 4H). Clarke and Leigh (2011) estimate a 6-year gap between the lowest and highest income quintiles at age 20.

Phitawat Poonpolkul 

Abstract: People in different age groups have shown to differ in their degrees of risk aversion. This study investigates the macroeconomic implications of population aging when households are assumed to be increasingly risk-averse in future utility when they age. The model incorporates risk-sensitive preferences used by Hansen & Sargent (1995), which are the only recursive preferences that can separate risk aversion and intertemporal elasticity of substitution while being monotonic, into a 16-generation discrete-time OLG model with undiversifiable income risk. Compared to a time-additive counterpart, risk-sensitive preferences capture precautionary saving motives that exacerbate adverse response of aggregate macroeconomic variables under a population aging scenario through demographic re-weighting and life-cycle redistrivution channels. Varying risk aversion also allows households to internalize future uncertanties when evaluating their welfare impacts of demographic change, resulting in non-monochomatic welfare dynamics with higher welfare loss under a high-risk environment and vice versa. Risk-sensitive preferences with age-dependent risk aversion can play an important role in optimal policy settings by introducing uncertainties into the welfare impact analysis, while taking into account more realistic risk-taking behaviour of different age cohorts. 

Keywords: Demographic change, risk-sensitive preferences, overlapping-generation model, precautionary savings, risk aversion 

Daniela Andrei, Sharon Parker, Andreea Constantin, Marian Baird, Lucinda Iles, Gretchen Petery, Leah Zoszak, Alison Williams, Shannon Chen

By 2050, almost one third of Australia’s population will be older than 60 (p. 9). With an ageing population and workforce, Australia, like many OECD countries, faces the challenge of adapting workplaces and work practices to meet the needs and interests of this changed demographic.

This report is based on research findings from a large-scale survey (N = 2009) of Australian workers aged 18 to 81. A convenience sample was obtained using online Australian panels. Our interest is in the mature workforce, so workers over 45 years were over-sampled. Younger workers were included for comparison purposes. 51% of the sample is male, and 49% is female. The sample is mostly metropolitan based (72%) and includes workers in a broad range of occupations, industries, and job roles. The spread of jobs is similar to national samples, although caution should be exercised when making inferences from this study to the Australian population.

The report is based on self-reported data collected at a single point in time and does not allow for causal inferences. Age group comparisons do not adjust for non-age specific differences in the groups. Whilst in our research we define mature workers as employees aged 45 and over, our analysis revealed consistent shifts in experiences for employees aged 55 and over. Therefore in the executive summary we highlight results for these mature workers in particular.

The survey focused on as perception of organizational practices that can support mature workers, as well as the lived experience of mature workers, according to three key themes:

• Include – workers being welcomed and valued, irrespective of age;
• Individualise – work that is adjusted to accommodate the changing needs and preferences of mature workers;
• Integrate –communication and knowledge sharing across diverse age groups.

Qian Lu, Katja Hanewald and Xiaojun Wang

Abstract: China has experienced large improvements in mortality rates, but there remain substantial variations at the provincial level. This paper develops new models to project mortality at both the national and provincial levels in China. We propose two models in a Bayesian hierarchical framework based on principal components and a random walk process, and compile a new comprehensive database containing mortality data for 31 provinces over the period 1982–2010. The baseline two-level model with a national–province hierarchy allows for information pooling across provinces, common national factors and consistency conditions. The extended three-level model with a national–region–province hierarchy pools information in the region and also allows for common factors within the region. Both models provide good estimates and reasonable forecasts for China and its provinces. The baseline two-level model provides good fit and reasonable forecasts with equal width intervals for the provinces. The three-level model has a better fit with a lower deviance information criterion and provides forecast intervals reflecting regional uncertainty. The sensitivity analyses show that the forecasts are robust when changing the trend assumptions and regional groups.

Keywords: Mortality modelling, Bayesian framework, Hierarchical models, Coherent mortality projection, China

Rafal Chomik and Sophie Yan

In Australia, the topic of housing occupies many a newspaper column, barbeque conversation, and research report. Just over half (or $6.3t) of Australian household wealth is stored in housing, distributed across 10.3m residential dwellings, which are among the most expensive in the world (Demographia 2018; AFR 2019). The family home not only fulfils everyday needs as a shelter and a place for family and social relations but can also act as a store of value and guarantee financial security in retirement – it is both nest and nest egg. Yet the same cannot be said about those who rent their home in retirement. For them, security of tenure and finances is often lacking.

Housing outcomes therefore affect financial and personal health and wellbeing over the lifecycle. And as lifespans increase and Australia’s population ages it is important to continue to examine the interactions between demography and housing. This research brief explores the current state and projected future of such interactions, marrying policy developments with the latest data and research, particularly from CEPAR researchers. The brief complements previous CEPAR research briefs, including a series on retirement incomes in Australia and on aged care in Australia. In fact, homeownership is often considered as another pillar of the retirement income system, in addition to the Age Pension, and mandatory and voluntary superannuation. Much has been written about housing, so the aim here is to apply CEPAR’s expertise in demographic change to bring new insights to this complex topic.

This brief is in three parts. It first tackles the dynamics of the housing purchase in working life, describing the patterns of housing tenure across generations, demographic and market dynamics, the likely future effects of demography on housing demand, and the policies that can affect home purchase outcomes, particularly taxes. In part two, the brief considers housing consumption in old age, discussing the retirement income context, the value and distribution of housing wealth, the preference of older people for remaining in their community, and how older people bequeath or can make better use of the equity in their home in retirement. Finally, part three tackles housing lack in old age, describing the implications and vulnerabilities that arise from renting in retirement. Overall, the brief provides a broad stocktake of research that touches on many different areas of housing-related policy.

Dandan Yu and Denzil G. Fiebig

Abstract: The present study examines the reciprocal relationship between Internet use and cognitive function over time among middle-aged and older populations in China. We use data from the first three waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), where participants provided information on Internet use and cognitive function measures at the baseline in 2011 as well as two follow-ups in 2013 and 2015. Cross-lagged panel models were fitted to test the reciprocal association over these four years. Middle-aged and older individuals with higher cognitive function were more likely to be regular Internet users. After controlling for the effects of cognition two years prior, Internet users tended to score higher on cognitive tests than non-users. These findings survived across alternative subsamples and model specifications. Our results suggest that cognitive decline in later life may explain the lower technology adoption rate among older individuals. Meanwhile, Internet use could serve as a protective factor against cognitive decline in mid-life and older adulthood. 

Keywords: Internet use; Cognitive Function; Cross-Lagged Panel; China