Trang Le, George Kudrna, and John Piggott

This paper studies how the social norm of intergenerational support, where parents anticipate financial assistance from their adult children in old age, influences fertility and education investment decisions in developing countries. We develop a dynamic life-cycle model with uncertain labor income and endogenous fertility and education choices, incorporating expectations of private transfers driven by this norm. Using data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey, we estimate labor income profiles and income risks, account for parental financial constraints, and document the prevalence of intergenerational transfers in the 2000s. The model is calibrated to match key empirical patterns in fertility and schooling. Counterfactual simulations reveal that a weakening of this social norm leads to declines in both fertility and educational investment, particularly among lower-educated parents. Our findings underscore the central role of intergenerational transfers in shaping demographic and human capital
outcomes and provide new insights into the persistence of educational inequality in developing economies.

Renee Fry-McKibbin, Weifeng Larry Liu, and Warwick J. McKibbin

Developing Asia has achieved remarkable economic growth in the last several decades but faces challenges moving from middle-income to high-income status. This paper examines the macroeconomic impacts of future productivity growth in developing Asia on the region and the world, focusing on the responses of private investment. We consider five scenarios of productivity growth driven by catch-up mechanism, with our results showing that Asia’s transition to high-income status requires continued rapid productivity growth and massive private investment. The increase in investment would significantly raise real interest rates
domestically, resulting in international capital flows. Quantitatively, increased investment would be financed mainly through domestic saving, but international capital markets would also play a critical role. Productivity growth in one region generates spillover effects in others through two channels, namely international trade and capital flows. Spillover effects tend to be modestly negative in the medium term because capital flows would increase interest rates, but positive in the long term because regions with rising productivity would increase imports from other regions. Thus, competition among Asian economies and with other developing regions is not a zero-sum game as they benefit from each other in the long term. Continuous improvement in policies, institutions, and governance in developing Asia is required to achieve rapid productivity growth and to reduce the risks among economies in attracting international capital flows. Additionally, we examine two climate change scenarios and show that climate change will negatively impact productive investment and economic growth both in developing Asia and globally, as it will reduce productivity.

Weifeng Larry Liu, Warwick McKibbin, Geoffrey Shuetrim, and Peter Wilcoxen

The global economy has experienced significant structural change over the past several decades and is expected to continue evolving in the future, driven by both supply- and demand-side forces. This paper focuses on the supply side, illustrating how productivity growth drives long-term structural change. We examine three scenarios: demographic change in the baseline, technological catch-up of developing countries toward the global productivity frontier, and global productivity growth in manufacturing driven by automation technology. We simulate the scenarios in a multi-region, multi-sector general equilibrium model (G-Cubed). The model captures not only the direct channel of different productivity growth across sectors, but also the indirect channels through sectoral and international linkages. The analysis highlights how asymmetric productivity growth across sectors and countries can reshape global economic structure over time, with important implications for economic growth, international trade, and the distribution of global economic powers.

Weifeng Larry Liu and Warwick J. McKibbin

This paper surveys long-term projections of global GDP per capita and presents our own projections through 2050 using a multi-country-multi-sector general equilibrium model (G-Cubed). Existing studies generally agree that global GDP per capita growth will continue to slow in the coming decades, driven by several global challenges such as rapid population ageing, slower technological progress, weaker capital investment, and stagnating educational attainment. Projections tend to be consistent for advanced economies, but vary considerably for developing regions, highlighting the importance of alternative methodologies and assumptions, as well as inherent long-term uncertainty. While existing studies rely on neoclassical models with an aggregate production sector, the G-Cubed model takes a disaggregated approach to projecting productivity and output that accounts for dynamic interactions between sectors and across economies. Our projections incorporate the impacts of three fundamental factors: productivity growth, population ageing, and climate change. Productivity growth in advanced economies is expected to slow, but artificial intelligence could counteract the decline and serve as an engine for sustained growth. Population ageing in most advanced economies will continue to constrain labour supply, potentially reducing GDP per capita through changes in age structure. Climate change poses challenges to economic growth through multiple channels, with moderate quantitative impacts by mid-century. The extent to which developing regions can boost productivity, leverage demographic advantages, and navigate climate change will depend on policy choices, as well as governance and institutional improvements. Finally, the paper discusses the implications of geopolitical fragmentation, government debt, and public infrastructure on economic growth.

This submission argues that underinvestment in mid-life skills development is holding back productivity growth and contributing to lower participation among older workers, and that this under- investment is to a significant degree due to a lack of income support. The problem is not just about individual outcomes: it has macroeconomic consequences. Workers who are not supported to adapt and upskill are more likely to withdraw early from the labour force or remain underutilised. Yet Australia lacks an inclusive, scalable, and financially accessible policy framework to support such training. Internationally, initiatives of this kind have been mixed, but the Singapore example is very comprehensive: the Singaporean Futureskills initiative. Chomik et al. (2021) provides an overview of options to tap into the mature workforce in the Australian context.

Peter McDonald

In the recent past, there has been considerable coverage in the media in Australia of the level of the Australian fertility rate. This has been given impetus by the publication in December 2024 of a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.49 births per woman for the year 2023-24 (ABS 2024a), the lowest level of the TFR ever recorded. In this paper, Peter McDonald discusses why the TFR is a very misleading estimate of the number of births that Australian women are having.

Lingfeng Lyu, Yang Shen, Michael Sherris, Jonathan Ziveyi

Michael Sherris, Ellora Shirodkar, and Michelle Vhudzijena

This submission provides key observations and recommendations regarding the funding proposals for the Support at Home Program (SAH) under the new Aged Care Act 2024.

CEPAR was established in March 2011 to undertake high-impact, independent, multidisciplinary research and build research capacity in the field of population ageing. Funded primarily by two seven-year grants from the Australian Research Council, with generous support from the collaborating universities and partner organisations, the ARC Centre of Excellence undertook an extensive research program and a wide range of education and outreach activities to support its mission to produce and promulgate research of the highest quality to optimise social and economic outcomes for an ageing world.

The second ARC Centre of Excellence funding term ended on 27 September 2024, with research outputs for the period 1 January – 27 September 2024 published here (although outputs will continue to be produced well beyond this timeframe):

CEPAR was established in March 2011 to undertake high-impact, independent, multidisciplinary research and build research capacity in the field of population ageing. Funded primarily by two seven-year grants from the Australian Research Council, with generous support from the collaborating universities and partner organisations, the ARC Centre of Excellence undertook an extensive research program and a wide range of education and outreach activities to support its mission to produce and promulgate research of the highest quality to optimise social and economic outcomes for an ageing world.

The second ARC Centre of Excellence funding term ended on 27 September 2024, with research outputs for the period 1 January – 27 September 2024 published here (although outputs will continue to be produced well beyond this timeframe):

• Working Papers 

The second ARC Centre of Excellence (CoE) funding term ended on 27 September 2024, with research outputs for the ARC CoE funding period published below.

Dinale, D. (2024). Springer Cham, Switzerland.

Kwak, D.W. and Lee, J.W. (2024). Japanese Economic Review. 

Temple, J.B., Grossman, I., Pollard, C.M., Kleve, S., Booth, S., and Fry, J.M. (2024). Australian Journal of Social Issues. 

Fry, J., Temple, J., and Williams, R. (2023). Nutrition & Dietetics. 

Williams, A., Zettna, N., and O’Loughlin, K. (2024). In Baird, M., Hamilton, M., and Williams, A. (Eds.). ​The Multigenerational Workforce – Managing Age and Gender at Work. Palgrave MacMillan, United Kingdom. p.181–208

 Williams, A., Hamilton, M., and Baird, M. (2024). In Baird, M., Hamilton, M., and Williams, A. (Eds.). ​The Multigenerational Workforce – Managing Age and Gender at Work. Palgrave MacMillan, United Kingdom. p.21-45

Loh, V., O’Loughlin, K., and Zettna, N. (2024). In Baird, M., Hamilton, M., and Williams, A. (Eds.). ​The Multigenerational Workforce – Managing Age and Gender at Work. Palgrave MacMillan, United Kingdom. p.157–180

Loh, V., and Baird, M. (2024). In Baird, M., Hamilton, M., and Williams, A. (Eds.). ​The Multigenerational Workforce – Managing Age and Gender at Work. Palgrave MacMillan, United Kingdom. p.209–236

Hamilton, M., Baird, M., and Zettna, N. (2024). In Baird, M., Hamilton, M., and Williams, A. (Eds.). ​The Multigenerational Workforce – Managing Age and Gender at Work. Palgrave MacMillan, United Kingdom. p.123–156

Hamilton, M., and Zettna, N. (2024). In Baird, M., Hamilton, M., and Williams, A. (Eds.). ​The Multigenerational Workforce – Managing Age and Gender at Work. Palgrave MacMillan, United Kingdom. p.91-122

Hamilton, M., and Baird, M. (2024). In Baird, M., Hamilton, M., and Williams, A. (Eds.). ​The Multigenerational Workforce – Managing Age and Gender at Work. Palgrave MacMillan, United Kingdom. p.1-20

Baird, M., Williams, A., and Hamilton, M. (2024). In Baird, M., Hamilton, M., and Williams, A. (Eds.). ​The Multigenerational Workforce – Managing Age and Gender at Work. Palgrave MacMillan, United Kingdom. p.67-89

Baird, M., Hamilton, M., and Heron, A. (2024). In Baird, M., Hamilton, M., and Williams, A. (Eds.). ​The Multigenerational Workforce – Managing Age and Gender at Work. Palgrave MacMillan, United Kingdom. p.47-65

Baird, M., and Hamilton, M. (2024). In Baird, M., Hamilton, M., and Williams, A. (Eds.). The Multigenerational Workforce – Managing Age and Gender at Work. Palgrave MacMillan, United Kingdom. p.237–247

Baird, M., Hamilton, M., and Williams, A. (Eds.). (2024). Palgrave MacMillan, United Kingdom.

Wilson, T., Temple, J., Burchill, L., Luke, J., and Logiudice, D. (2024). Genus. 80, Article 16

Menges, J.I., Howe, L., Hall, E., Jachimowicz, J., Parker, S.K., Takeuchi, R. Vadera, A.K., Whillians, A., and Cohen, S.K. (2024). Academy of Management Discoveries. 10(3), 307-511

Lennon, M.J., Lipnicki, D.M., Lam, B.C.P., Crawford, J.D., Schutte, A.E., Peters, R., Rydberg-Sterner, T., Najar, J., Skoog, I., Riedel-Heller, S.G., Röhr, S., Pabst, A., Lobo, A., De-la-Cámara, C., Lobo, E., Lipton, R.B., Katz, M.J., Derby, C.A., Kim, K.W., Han, J.W., Oh, D.J., Rolandi, E., Davin, A., Rossi, M., Scarmeas, N., Yannakoulia, M., Dardiotis, T., Hendrie, H.C., Gao, S., Carriere, I., Ritchie, K., Anstey, K.J., Cherbuin, N., Xiao, S., Yue, L., Li, W., Guerchet, M., Preux, P.M., Aboyans, V., Haan, M.N., Aiello, A., Scazufca, M., and Sachdev, P.S., as the Cohort Studies of Memory in an International Consortium (COSMIC) Group. (2024). Neurology. 103(5), Article e209715

Jurasova, V., Andel, R., Katonova, A., Veverova, K., Zuntychova, T., Horakova, H., Vyhnalek, M., Kolarova, T., Matoska, V., Blennow, K., and Hort, J. (2024). Alzheimer's Research & Therapy. 16, Article 199

Olivieri, A., and Tabakova, D. (2024). Decisions in Economics and Finance. 

Shang, F., Tims, M., and Parker, S.K. (2024). Journal of Organizational Behavior. 

Cerin, E., Soloveva, M.V., Molina, M.A., Schroers, R.D., Knibbs, L.D., Akram, M., Wu, Y.T., Mavoa, S., Prina, M., Sachdev, P.S., Sorensen Catts, V., Jalaludin, B., Poudel, G., Symmons, M., Barnett, A., Huque, M.H., Leung, Y., Cherbuin, N., and Anstey, K.J. (2024). Environ Int. 25(191), Article 108984

Mehta, K., Magliano, D.J., Carstensen, B., Salim, A., Morton, J.I., Abimanyi-Ochom, J., Anstey, K.J., Shaw, J.E., and Sacre, J.W. (2024). Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice. 216, Article 111795

Hansen, A., Eramudugolla, R., Kiely, K.M., Delbaere, K., Bédard, M., Brown, J., Clare, L., Lung, T., Wood, J.M., and Anstey, K.J. (2024). BMJ Open. 14(8), Article e087137

Kivipelto, M., Mangialaschem, F., and Anstey, K.J. (2024). The Lancet. 404(10452), 501-503

Warner, K.N., Poulos, R.G., Cole, A.M.D., Nguyen, T.A., Un, F.C., Faux, S.G., Kohler, F., Alexander, T., Capell, J.T., Hilvert, D.R., O’Connor, C.M.C., and Poulos, C.J. (2024). Disability and Rehabilitation.

Latif, B.N., Coombe, L., Driscoll, T., van Zwieten, A., Sherrington, C., and Khalatbari-Soltani, S. (2024). Aust N Z J Public Health. 48(4), Article 100171

Olivieri, A. (2024). In Corazza, M., Gannon, F., Legros, F., Pizzi, C., Touzé, V. (Eds.). Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance. MAF 2024. Springer Cham, United Kingdom. p.242-247

Veen A., Barratt T., Goods C., and Baird M. (2024). Economic and Industrial Democracy. 45(3), 766–793

Scott, T., and Canudas-Romo, V. (2024). Demography. 61(4), 1011–1021

Keane, M., and Neal, T. (2024). Annual Reviews of Economics. 16, 185-212

Kwok, W.S., Khalatbari-Soltani, S., Dolja-Gore, X., Byles, J., Oliveira, J.S., Pinheiro, M.B., Tiedemann, A., and Sherrington, C. (2024). Br J Sports Med. 58(16), 919-929

O’Connor, C.M.C., Poulos, R.G., Heldon, M., Preti, C., Beattie, E., and Poulos, C.J. (2024). Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry and Neurology. 

Utomo, A., and McDonald, P. (2024). Asian Population Studies. 20(1), 17-25

Lian, J., Kiely, K.M., Callaghan, B.L., Eramudugolla, R., Mortby, M.E., and Anstey, K.J. (2024). Journal of prevention of Alzheimer’s disease. 11, 1818-1825

Arenaza-Urquijo, E.M., Boyle, R., Casaletto, K., Anstey, K.J., Vila-Castelar, C., Colverson, A., Palpatzis, E., Eissman, J.M., Kheng, S., Ng, T., Raghavan, S., Akinci, M., Vonk, J.M.J., Machado, L.S., Zanwar, P.P., Shrestha, H.L., Wagner, M., Tamburin, S., Sohrabi, H.R., Loi, S., Bartrés-Faz, D., Dubal, D.B., Prashanthi, V., Okonkwo, O., Hohman, T.J., Ewers, M., and Buckley, R.F. Reserve, Resilience and Protective Factors Professional Interest Area, Sex and Gender Professional Interest Area, and the ADDRESS! Special Interest Group. (2024). Alzheimer’s and Dementia: The Journal of the Alzheimer’s Association. 20(8), 5695-5719

Fehr, H., Hofmann, M., and Kudrna, G. (2024). International Economic Review.

Wagner, C., Jackisch, J., Khalatbari-Soltani, S., Cullati, S., and Chiolero, A. (2024). Rev Med Suisse. 20(881), 1285-1288

Xu, Y., Aung, H.L., Hesam-Shariati, N., Keay, L., Sun, X., Phu, J., Honson, V., Tully, P.J., Booth, A., Lewis, E., Anderson, C.S., Anstey, K.J., and Peters, R. (2024). Journal of the American Medical Directors Association. 25(8), Article 105098

O’Connor, C. M. C., Poulos, R. G., Heldon, M., Preti, C., Beattie, E., and Poulos, C. J. (2024). Health Promotion Journal of Australia. 

Marcus, J., Scheibe, S., Kooij, D., Truxillo, D.M., Zaniboni, S., Abuladze, L., Al Mursi, N., Bamberger, P.A., Balytska, M., Perek-Białas, J., Boehm, S.A., Burmeister, A., Cabib, I., Caon, M., Deller, J., Derous, E., Betanzos Diaz, N., Drury, L., Eppler-Hattab, R., Fasbender, U., Fülöp, M., Furunes, T., Gerpott, F.H., Goštautaitė, B., Halvorsen, C.J., Hernaus, T., Inceoglu, I., Iskifoglu, M., Sotiroska Ivanoska, K., Kanfer, R., Kenig, N., Kiran, S., Klimek, S., Kunze, F., Biran Mertan, E., Varianou-Mikellidou, C., Moasa, H., Lu Ng, Y., Parker, S.K., Reh, S., Resuli, V., Schmeink, M., Silberg, S., Sousa, I.C., Steiner, D.D., Stukalina, Y., Tomas, J., Topa, G., Turek, K., Vignoli, M., von Bonsdorff, M., Wang, D., Wang, M., Yeung, D.Y., Yildirim, K., Zhang, X., and Žnidaršič, J. (2024). Work, Aging, and Retirement. 10(4), 309-316

O'Loughlin K. and Williams A. (2024). In Hamblin K., Heyes J., and Fast J. (Eds.). Combining Work and Care Carer Leave and Related Employment Policies in International Context. Bristol University Press, United Kingdom. Chapter 4

Anstey, K.J., Huque, M.H., Kootar, S. et al. (2024). J Prev Alzheimers Dis. 

Xie, Y., Sinclair, C., Hamilton, M., Peisah, C., Temple, J. B., Anstey, K. J. (2024). Journal of Aging and Health. 

Orsatti, J., & Dinale, D. (2024). Labour and Industry. 1-23

Suarez-Gonzalez, A., Savage, S. A., Alladi, S., Amaral-Carvalho, V., Arshad, F., De La Losa, J. C., Caramelli, P., Comas-Herrera, A., Cook, J., Cooper, C., Diaz, L., Grasso, S., Jokel, R., Lavoie, M., León, T., Priya, T., Franco, T. R., Taylor-Rubin, C., Townsend, R., Thöne-Otto, A., Slachevsky, A., Volkmer, A., Weidner, W., and O’Connor, C. M. C. (2024). International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 21(6), 790

Daniels, B., Luckett, T., Liauw, W., Falster, M. O., Gisev, N., Blyth, F. M., and Pearson, S. A. (2024). Journal of Pain and Symptom Management. S0885-3924(24), Article 00809-1

Chung, S., Agnew J., Bateman H., Eckert C., Liu J., and Thorp, S. (2024). Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. 224, 229 - 247

Wheadon, D., Castex, G., Kudrna, G. and Woodland, A. (2024). Economic Modelling. 138, Article 106759

Stephan, B.C.M., Cochrane, L., Kafadar, A.H., Brain, J., Burton, E., Myers, B., Brayne, C., Naheed, A., Anstey, K.J., Ashor, A.W., and Siervo, M. (2024). Lancet Healthy Longevity. 5(6), e406-e421

Luke, J., Bessarab, D., Smith, K., LoGiudice, D., Flicker, L., Gilchrist, L., Dow, B., & Temple J. (2024). The Journals of Gerontology, Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences. 79(8), Article gbae100

Matison, A.P., Flood, V.M., Lam, B.C.P., Lipnicki, D.M., Tucker, K.L., Preux, P.M., Guerchet, M., d'Orsi, E., Quialheiro, A., Rech, C.R., Skoog, I., Najar, J., Sterner, T.R., Scarmeas, N., Kosmidis, M.H., Yannakoulia, M., Gureje, O., Ojagbemi, A., Bello, T., Shahar, S., Fakhruddin, N.N.N., Rivan, N.F.M., Anstey, K.J., Cherbuin, N., Mortby, M., Ho, R., Brodaty, H., Sachdev, P.S., Reppermund, S., & Mather, K.A. (2024). Journal of Affective Disorders. 359, 373-381

F. Ungolo, L. P. D. M. Garces, M. Sherris, and Y. Zhou. (2024). Annals of Actuarial Science. 1-26

Liu, W.L., and Sandler, T. (2024). Journal of Economic Behavior Organization. 223, 146-167

Cheung, W., Naganathan, V., Myburgh, J., Saxena, M. K., Fiona, B., Seppelt, I., Parr, M., Hooker, C., Kerridge, I., Nguyen, N., Kelly, S., Skowronski, G., Hammond, N., Attokaran, A., Chalmers, D., Gandhi, K., Kol, M., McGuinness, S., Nair, P., Nayyar, V., Orford, N., Parke, R., Shah, A., and Wagh, A. (2024). Australian Health Review. 

Anantanasuwong, K., Kouwenberg, R., Mitchell, O.S. et al. (2024). 

Dinale, D. (2024). Journal of European Social Policy. 34(4), 404-418

Charalambakis, E., Teppa, F. and Tsiortas, A. (2024). Oxford Economic Papers. Article gpae019

Rafal Chomik, Fatima Jamal Khan, and Jeromey Temple 

This research brief presents some of the latest research insights on migration and ageing, highlighting CEPAR research in a series of themed boxes from more than a dozen CEPAR researchers. The evidence can aid in understanding the heterogeneity of ageing. However, in presenting mostly descriptive quantitative assessments (in a somewhat chart-book format), the authors do not presume to know the nuanced lived experience of individuals in different communities or to weigh in prescriptively on the solutions to challenges faced. It is hoped that syntheses of evidence can arm those within different communities to seek change on their terms. 

The research brief assesses wellbeing outcomes across the lifecycle (e.g. education, employment, retirement, health) by three high-level migrant and CALD categories: (i) place of birth, (ii) language use at home, and (iii) spoken English proficiency. Despite the limitations of grouping people by just three variables (i.e. mixing all migrants and language groups and ignoring ethnicity or time since arrival), the brief offers a helicopter view of lifecycle outcomes of Australians from migrant and CALD communities. It covers major demographic shifts; highlights potential migrant and CALD groups’ vulnerabilities; and illustrates the need for further monitoring and research to inform and develop policy.

Vankova, H., Schmalz, M., Andel, R., and, Rajnochova Bloudickova, S. (2024). BMC geriatrics. 24(1), 423

Milledge, K., Cumming, R. G., Wright, F. A. C., Naganathan, V., Blyth, F. M., Le Couteur, D. G., Waite, L. M., Handelsman, D. J., and Hirani, V. (2024). Caries Research. 1-14

Gelaw, A., Parker, S., Johnson, A., Nguyen, H., Jolly, A., Forner, V., Deng, C., and Collie, A. (2024). Work. 78(1), 3-27

Chen, S., Chen, S., Hanewald, K., Si, Y., Bateman, H., Li, B., Xu, X., Samtani, S., Wu, C., and Brodaty, H. (2024). The Journals of Gerontology: Series A. 79(7), Article glae128

van Zwieten, A.*, Khalatbari-Soltani, S.*, and Miranda, J.J. (2024). In Ahrens, W., Pigeot, I. (Eds.). Handbook of Epidemiology. Springer, New York, USA. p.1-36