Publications
Research Publications

Factors Associated with Participation in a Multidomain Web-based Dementia Prevention Trial: Evidence from Maintain your Brain (MYB

Welberry, H., Chau, T., Heffernan, M., Jose, J.C.S., Jorm, L.R., Singh, M. F., Sachdev, P.S., Anstey, K.J., Lautenschlager, N.T., Valenzuela, M., McNeil, J., and Brodaty, H. (2023). Journal of Alzheimer’s Disease. 92(3), 959 – 974

Research Publications

How can People Benefit, and who Benefits most, from Using Socialisation-oriented Social Media at Work? An Affordance Perspective

Wang, B., Liu, Y., Qian, J., and Parker, S. K. (2023). Human Resource Management Journal

Research Publications

The Importance of Financial Literacy: Opening a New Field

Lusardi, A. and Mitchell, O. (2023). Journal of Economic Perspectives. 37(4), 137-54

Research Publications

Care Arrangements of Older Persons in Rural Indonesia: A Study of Six Villages

Absor, M.U., McDonald, P., Utomo, A., and Houle, B. (2023). Asian Population Studies

Research Publications

Insuring Longevity Risk and Long-term Care: Bequest, Housing and Liquidity

Xu, M., Alonso-García, J., Sherris, M. and Shao, A. W. (2023). Insurance: Mathematics and Economics. 111, 121-141

Research Publications

The Feasibility of a Multidomain Dementia Risk Reduction Randomised Controlled Trial for People Experiencing Cognitive Decline: The Body, Brain, Life for Cognitive Decline (BBL-CD)

McMaster, M., Kim, S., Clare, L., Torres,  S.J., Cherbuin, N., and Anstey, K.J. (2023). Aging and Mental Health. 27(11), 2111-2119

Data analysis
Working Papers

AffineMortality: An R package for estimation, analysis and projection of affine mortality models

Francesco Ungolo, Len Patrick Dominic M. Garces, Michael Sherris, and Yuxin Zhou

Abstract: This paper presents the AffineMortality R package which performs parameter estimation, goodness of fit analysis, simulation and projection of future mortality rates for a set of affine mortality models for use in pricing and reserving. The computational routines build on the univariate Kalman Filtering approach of Koopman & Durbin (2000) along other numerical methods to enhance the robustness of the results. This paper provides a discussion of how the package works in order to effectively estimate and project the models, and describes the available functions. Illustration of the package for mortality analysis of the US HMD dataset is provided.

Keywords: Longevity Risk, Kalman Filter, State-space models, Affine mortality

 

 

Research Publications

Household Wealth, Neighbourhood Deprivation and Frailty amongst Middle-aged and Older Adults in England: a Longitudinal Analysis over 15 years (2002-2017)

Maharani, A., Sinclair, D.R., Chandola, T. Bower, P., Clegg, A., Hanratty, B., Nazroo, J., Pendleton, N., Tampubolon, G., Todd, C., Wittenberg, R., O'Neill, T.W. and Matthews, F. E. (2023). Age and Ageing. 52(3), Article afad034

Research Publications

Differences and Similarities Between Consumer-and Caregiver-or Family-Informed Peer Roles in Mental Health

Roennfeldt, H., Chapman, M., Runneboom, C., Wang, Y., and Byrne, L. (2023). Psychiatric Services. 

cepar
Reports & Government Submissions

Submission on Legislating the Objective of Superannuation

Marc de Cure, John Piggott, Hazel Bateman, Rafal Chomik, and Michael Sherris

This submission to the Australian Government’s consultation on the objective of superannuation comments on the Consultation Paper on Legislating the Objective of Superannuation. The submission has two parts: The first directly addresses the consultation questions; the second raises issues with the consultation paper not covered by our responses to the consultation questions. 

Research Publications

Towards Optimizing Hospitalized Older adults' Medications (TO HOME): Multi-centre Study of Medication use and Outcomes in Routine Care

Hilmer, S.N., Lo, S., Kelly, P.J., Viney, R., Blyth, F.M., Le Couteur, D.G., McLachlan, A.J., Arora, S., Hossain, L. and Gnjidic, D. (2023). British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology.

Research Publications

Steps to Implementation: Understanding Barriers and Enablers for Implementing Arts on Prescription at Home for People Impacted by Dementia

O’Connor, C.M.C., Poulos, R.G., Preti, C., Heldon, M., Barclay, L., Beattie, E. and Poulos, C.J. (2023). Health Promotion Journal of Australia. 35(1), 110-121

Research Publications

Key Drivers of Long-term Rates of Mortaility Improvements in the United States: Period, Cohort, and Cause of Death Analysis, 1959-2016

Villegas, A. M., Bajekal, M., Haberman, S. and Zhou, L. (2023). North American Actuarial Journal. 28(1), 187-217

Research Publications

Employees Adhere More to Unethical Instructions from Human Than AI Supervisors: Complementing Experimental Evidence with Machine Learning

Lanz, L., Briker, R., and Gerpott, F.H. (2023). Journal of Business Ethics. 189, 625-646

Research Publications

Is Leader Proactivity Enough: Importance of Leader Competency in Shaping Team Role Breadth Efficacy and Proactive Performance

Chiu, C. Y., Wu, C., Bartram, A., Parker, S. K., and Lee, C. (2023). Journal of Vocational Behavior. 143, Article 103865

Nonlinear Means-Tested Pensions: Welfare and Distributional Analyses
Working Papers

Nonlinear Means-Tested Pensions: Welfare and Distributional Analyses

Daniel Wheadon, Gonzalo Castex, George Kudrna and Alan Woodland

Abstract: Several countries, including Australia, have a means-tested public age pension. Means testing the age pension can reduce the overall fiscal burden relative to a universal pension, but can also distort households’ incentives to work and save. Policymakers can influence the sizes of these distortions by adjusting the structure of the pension function (e.g., the withdrawal rate of the pension). In contrast with the standard piece-wise linear means test, we introduce a class of non-linear means tests that contain the standard linear test as a special case and allow for progressive or regressive tests in which the withdrawal rate respectively increases or decreases as means increase. To identify the socially optimal nonlinear income-tested pension function, we develop an overlapping generations model of a small open economy with heterogeneous agents with stochastic wage and mortality profiles. We find that the optimal nonlinear income test is strongly regressive with a low average withdrawal rate as income increases.

Keywords: Population aging, Sustainability, Social security, Means testing, Redis- tribution, Overlapping generations, Dynamic general equilibrium.

 

Research Publications

Explaining Consumers’ Progress through Life Insurance Decision States: The Role of Personal Values and Consumer Characteristics

Bateman, H., Gerrans, P., Thorp, S., and Zeng, Y. (2023). Journal of Consumer Affairs

Research Publications

The relationship between exposure to Hurricane Harvey and mortality among nursing home residents

Hua, C. L., Patel, S., Thomas, K. S., Peterson, L. J., Andel, R., Gordon, L., Jester, D. & Dosa, D. M. (2023). Journal of the American Geriatrics Society. 71(3), 888-894

Research Publications

IDF2022-0391 Longevity and Disability-free Life Expectancy for People with Diabetes in South Africa

Payne, C., Liwin, L.K., Wade, A., and Houle, B. (2023). Diabetes Research and Clinical Research Practice. 197(Supplement 1), Article 110442

Research Publications

Frequency of Coexistent Eye Diseases and Cognitive Impairment or Dementia: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Xu, Y., Phu, J., Aung, H.L., Hesam-Shariati, N., Keay, L., Tully, P.J., Booth, A., Anderson, C.S., Anstey, J.K., and Peters, R. (2023). Eye. 37, 3128–3136

Research Publications

Can a Familiar Gender Stereotype Create a not-so Familiar Benefit for Women? Evidence of Gendered Differences in Ascribed Stereotypes and Effects of Team Member Adaptivity on Performance Evaluations

Carpini, J. A., Luksyte, A., Parker, S. K., & Collins, C. G. (2023). Journal of Organizational Behavior. 44(5), 590-605

Research Publications

How the Pandemic Altered Americans’ Debt Burden and Retirement Readiness

Hasler, A., Lusardi, A. and Mitchell, O.S. (2023). Financial Services Review. 65(1), Article e1156

Research Publications

Physical activity and functional disability among older adults in Ghana: The moderating role of multi-morbidity

Awuviry-Newton, K., Amponsah, M., Amoah, D., Villalobos Dintrans, P., Afram, A. A., Byles, J., Mugumbate, J. R., Kowal, P., and Asiamah, N. (2023). PLOS Glob Public Health. 3, Article e0001014

Research Publications

Sustained Knowledge Work and Thinking Time Amongst Academics: Gender and Working from Home during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Peetz, D., Baird, M., Banerjee, R., Bartkiw, T., Campbell, S., Charlesworth, S., et al. (2022). Labour and Industry. 31(1), 72-92

George Kudrna
Working Papers

The Economy-wide Effects of Mandating Private Retirement Incomes

George Kudrna

Abstract: This paper investigates the economy-wide effects of mandating private pensions. Drawing on Australia’s Superannuation Guarantee (SG) legislation, which mandates contributions to private retirement (superannuation) accounts, our objective is to quantify the long-term effects of the SG mandate on households’ economic decisions, welfare, and macroeconomic and fiscal indicators. We begin with the partial equilibrium (PE) life-cycle analysis that considers private (liquid) and superannuation (illiquid) assets, highlighting the interactions of the SG mandate with income taxation, public pensions, and bequest re- distribution. We then develop a general equilibrium (GE) model that includes overlapping generations of heterogenous households, labor income and survival risks, and both types of household assets. The model is calibrated using Australian data and incorporates a detailed representation of government policy, including mandatory superannuation. The simulation results indicate that higher SG rates lead to significantly greater household wealth, output and consumption per capita, and household welfare across the skill distribution in the long run. These positive effects are due to (combination of) increased tax subsidies, more binding means testing reducing public pensions, redistribution of increased accidental bequests and also GE effects on factor prices (with higher gross wage rates).

Keywords: Private Pension, Social Security, Income Taxation, Labor Supply, Life- Cycle, General Equilibrium

 

Estimation, Comparison and Projection of Multi-factor Age-Cohort Affine Mortality Models
Working Papers

Estimation, Comparison and Projection of Multi-factor Age-Cohort Affine Mortality Models

Francesco Ungolo Len Patrick Dominic M. Garces, Michael Sherris and Yuxin Zhou

Abstract: Affine mortality models, developed in continuous time, are well suited to longevity risk applications including pricing and capital management. A major advantage of this mortality modelling approach is the availability of closed-form cohort survival curves, consistent with the assumed time dynamics of mortality rates. This paper makes new contributions to the estimation of multi-factor continuous-time affine models including the canonical Blackburn-Sherris, the AFNS and the CIR mortality models. We discuss and address numerical issues with model estimation. We apply the estimation methods to age-cohort mortality data from five different countries, providing insights into the dynamics of mortality rates and the fitting performance of the models. We show how the use of maximum likelihood with the univariate Kalman filter turns out to be faster and more robust compared to traditional estimation methods which heavily use large matrix multiplication and inversion. We present graphical and numerical goodness-of-fit results and assess model robustness. We project cohort survival curves and assess the out-of-sample performance of the models for the five countries. We con- firm previous results, by showing that, across these countries, although the CIR mortality model fits the historical mortality data well, particularly at older ages, the canonical and AFNS affine mortality models provide better out-of-sample performance. We also show how these affine mortality models are robust with respect to the set of age-cohort data used for parameter estimation. R code is provided.

Keywords: Longevity Risk, Kalman filter, State-space models, Affine mortality models

 

Research Publications

Diabetes Research and Clinical Research Practice

Payne, C., Liwin, L.K., Wade, A., and Houle, B. (2023). Diabetes Research and Clinical Research Practice. 197, Article 110577

Research Publications

Three Nightmare Traits (TNT) and the Similarity Effect Determine which Personality Traits we Like and Dislike.

Dunlop, P. D., de Vries, R. E., Jolly, A. A., and Parker, S. K. (2023). Journal of Research in Personality. 103, Article 104358

Research Publications

Experiences of Performing Daily Activities in Middle-Aged and Older Autistic Adults: A Qualitative Study

Hwang, Y. I. J., Foley, K. R., Elley, K., Brown, S., Joy-Leong, D., Li, X., Grove, R., Troller, J., Pellicano, E. & Zheng, L. (2022). Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders. 

Research Publications

Job Enrichment

Parker, S. K., and Carpini, J. A. (2023). In S. Johnstone, J. K. Rodrigues, and A. Wilkinson (eds). Encyclopedia of Human Resource Management (2nd ed.). Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK. pp.219-220

Research Publications

Multitude effects of intersection of gender, marital status and economic dependency on the health status of the elderly in India

Prasad, R.D., Ram, H. & Goli, S. (2023). Journal of Social and Economic Development. 

Research Publications

The Mental Health of Fly-in Fly-out Workers Before and During Covid-19: A Comparison Study

Gilbert, J. M., Fruhen, L. S., Burton, C. T., and Parker, S. K. (2023). Australian Journal of Psychology. 75(1)

Research Publications

What Would a Population-level Approach to Dementia Risk Look Like and how Would it Work?

Walsh, S., Govia, I., Peters, R., Richard, E., Stephan, B.C.M., Wilson, N., Wallace, L., Anstey, K.J. and Brayne, C. (2023). Alzheimer's and Dementia. 19(7), 3203-3209

Research Publications

The Impact of Fintech Development on Air Pollution

Ma, Y., Wei, X., Yan, G., and He, X. (2023). International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 20(4), Article 3387

Research Publications

Health Risk, Insurance, and Optimal Progressive Income Taxation

Jung, J., and Tran, C. (2023). Journal of the European Economic Association. 21(5), 2043-2097

Research Publications

Addressing Dementia through Analysis of Population Traits and Risk Factors (ADAPTOR) using Australia’s largest Cohort Study: A Study Protocol

McNamara, M., Dolja-Gore, X., Cavenagh, D., D’Este, C., Melo, L., Jackson, K., Nepal, S., Cresswell, A., Anstey, K.J., Brodaty, H., Welberry, H., & Goh, A. (2023). Europe PMC

Research Publications

Could Country-level Factors Explain sex Differences in Dementia Incidence and Prevalence? A Systematic Review and Meta-analyis

Huque, H., Eramudugolla, R., Chidiac, B., Ee, N., Ehrenfeld, L., Matthews, F.E., Peters, R., and Anstey, K.J. (2023).  Journal of Alzheimer’s Disease. 91(4), 1231-1241

Research Publications

Instrument Strength in IV Estimation and Inference: A Guide to Theory and Practice

Keane, M., Neal, T. (2023). Journal of Econometrics. 235(2), 1625-165

Research Publications

Working Women in Australia

Baird, M., Cooper, R., Dinale, D. (2023). In J. Parker, M. Baird, N. Donnelly, R. Cooper (Eds.). Women and Work in Asia and the Pacific: Experiences, Challenges and ways Forward. New Zealand: Massey University Press, New Zealand. pp.61-83

Research Publications

Women and Work in Asia and the Pacific: Experiences, Challenges and ways Forward

Parker, J., Baird, M., Donnelly, N. and Cooper, R. (eds). (2023). New Zealand: Massey University Press, New Zealand.

Research Publications

Trait Continuity: Can Parent-rated Infant Temperament Predict HEXACO Personality in Early Adulthood?

Kamarova, S., Dunlop, P. D., and Parker, S. K. (2023). Scandinavian Journal of Psychology. 64(4), 512-526

Research Publications

Developing a Model for Rehabilitation in the Home as Hospital Substitution for Patients Requiring Reconditioning: A Delphi Survey in Australia

Poulos, R.G., Cole, A., Warner, K., Faux, S., Nguyen, T.A., Kohler, F., Un, F.C., Alexander, T., Capell, J., Hilvert, D., O’Connor, C.M.C. and Poulos, C.J. (2023). BMC Health Services Research. 23, Article 113

Research Publications

‘Work Not as Usual’: Work and Industrial Relations in a Post-COVID World

Dabaja, I., Dinale, D., Gulesserian, L. and Wright, C. (eds.). (2023). Labour & Industry. 33(1), 1-10.

Research Publications

Family companionship and elderly suicide: Evidence from the Chinese Lunar New Year

Fang, H., Lei, Z., Lin, L., Zhang, P., and Zhou, M. (2023). Journal of Development Economics. 162, Article 103055

Research Publications

Mirabella at Arizona State University: A Case Example in Innovation at a University-Based Retirement Community

Maxfield, M., Beagley, L., Peckham, A., Guest, M. A., Giasson, H. L., Byrd, D. R., Munm C.J., Yu, F., Ng, T., Pohl, J. ,Koffer, R., Andel, R., and Coon, D. W. (2023). Journal of Aging and Environment. 1-20

Research Publications

Better Educated Children, Better Internet-connected Elderly Parents

Lei, L., Yu, D. and Zhou, Y. (2023). Research Policy. 52(4), Article 104743

Research Publications

Prevalence of Visual Impairment in Older People Living with Dementia and Its Impact: A Scoping Review

Zhang, W., Roberts, T.V., Poulos, C.J. and Stanaway, F.F. (2023). BMC Geriatric. 23(1), Article 63

Research Publications

The 2021 Proposal to Increase Market Forces in the Australian Residential Aged-care Sector

Cutler, H., Gu, Y., Bilgrami, A. and Partington, A. (2023). Health Policy. 127, 60-65

Research Publications

Life-course Inequalities in Intrinsic Capacity and Healthy Ageing: Retrospective Evidence from Pre-old and Older Populations in China

Si, Y., Hanewald, K., Chen, S., Li, B., Bateman, H., and Beard, J. (2023). Bulletin of the World Health Organization. 101(5), 307 - 316C

Research Publications

Do Co-ethnic Neighbourhoods Affect the Labour Market Outcomes of Immigrants? Longitudinal Evidence from Australia

Nguyen, T., Bernard, A., Lee, R., Wilson, T. and Argent, N. (2023). Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy. 16, 831-850

Loretti Dobrescu
Working Papers

A Fast Upper Envelope Scan Method for Discrete-Continuous Dynamic Programming

Loretti I. Dobrescu and Akshay Shanker

Abstract: We introduce a fast upper envelope scan (FUES) method to solve and estimate dynamic programming problems with discrete and continuous choices. FUES builds on the standard endogenous grid method (EGM). EGM applied to problems with continuous and discrete choices, however, does not by itself generate the optimal solution, as the first order conditions used to retrieve the endogenous grid are necessary but not sufficient. FUES sequentially checks EGM candidate solution points and eliminates those not on the upper envelope of the value correspondence by only allowing discontinuities in the policy function at non-concave regions of the value correspondence. Unlike previous methods used to perform EGM in discrete-continuous dynamic models, FUES does not require the monotonicity of the policy functions. It is also computationally efficient, straightforward to implement, and for sufficiently large EGM grid sizes, guaranteed to recover the optimal solution.

Key Words: discrete and continuous choices, non-convex optimization, Euler equation, computational methods, dynamic programming

Ageing data
Working Papers

Disability and Morbidity among US Birth Cohorts, 1998-2018: A Multidimensional Test of Dynamic Equilibrium Theory

Tianyu Shen and Collin Payne

Abstract: A substantial body of prior research has explored patterns of disability-free and morbidity-free life expectancy (LE) among older populations. However, these distinct facets of later-life health are almost always studied in isolation, even though they are very likely to interact with each other. Using data from the US Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and a multistate life table approach, this paper explores the interactions between disability, morbidity, and mortality among four successive US birth cohorts, born from 1914-1923 to 1944-1953. These 10-year cohorts are compared in the periods 1998-2008 and 2008-2018. The LE and health expectancies (HEs) are calculated via demographic microsimulation, and are modelled separately by sex, educational attainment and race/ethnicity. We find little compression of disability but a substantial expansion of morbidity across cohorts in each of the three age ranges. Investigating interactions between morbidity and disability, we find that disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) among those living with chronic morbidities has increased, but that at the population level DFLE is largely unchanged across successive cohorts. Investigating patterns in population sub-groups, we find that less advantaged populations (low educated and non- white groups) live substantially fewer years free of disabilities or chronic morbidities. Broadly, these patterns suggest that the link between chronic morbidities and disability has weakened over time in the US population. However, at the population level, successive cohorts are spending fewer years of life free of both chronic morbidities and disability.

This paper has been published in SSM-Population Health. For the peer-reviewed paper, please refer to https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmph.2023.101528

 

Suggested citation (APA): Shen, T., & Payne, C. F. (2023). Disability and morbidity among US birth cohorts, 1998–2018: A multidimensional test of dynamic equilibrium theory. SSM - Population Health, 101528. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmph.2023.101528

 

KeywordsMorbidity, Disability, Aging, Dynamic equilibrium, Health expectancy

 

Research Publications

Effects of Anti-inflammatory Dietary Patterns on Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Systematic Literature Review

Abdallah, J., Assaf, S., Das, A. and Hirani, V. (2023). European Journal of Nutrition

Research Publications

Distinguishing Apathy From Depression: A Review Differentiating the Behavioral, Neuroanatomic, and Treatment-Related Aspects of Apathy From Depression in Neurocognitive Disorders

Lanctôt, K.L., Ismail, Z., Bawa, K.K., Cummings, J.L., Husain, M., Mortby, M.E., Robert, P. (2023). Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry. 38(2), Article e5882

Research Publications

Bridging the Gap: Study Protocol for Development of an Implementation Strategy for Evidence-informed Reablement and Rehabilitation for Community-dwelling People with Dementia

O’Connor, C.M.C., Polous, C. J., Kurrle, S., and Anstey, K. J. (2023). Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics. 108, Article 104943

Research Publications

Determinants of Early-Access to Retirement Savings: Lessons from the Australian Government response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Bateman, H., Dobrescu, I., Liu, J., Newell, B.R. and Thorp, S. (2023). Journal of the Economics of Ageing. 24, Article 100441

Research Publications

Quantifying the financial impact of overuse in primary care in China: A standardised patient study

Si, Y., Bateman, H., Chen, S., Hanewald, K., Li, B., Su, M., and Zhou, Z. (2023). Social Science & Medicine. 320, Article 115670

Research Publications

Perspectives of family-centred care at the end of life during the COVID-19 pandemic: A qualitative descriptive study

Bloomer, M., Yuen, E., Williams, R., Bouchoucha, S., Poon, P., Runacres, F., Mooney, C., Hutchinson, A. (2023). Journal of Clinical Nursing. 32(15-16), 5173-5184

Life-course Inequalities in Intrinsic Capacity among Chinese Older Adults
Working Papers

Quantifying the Financial Impact of Overuse in Primary Care in China: A Standardised Patient Study

Yafei Si, Hazel Bateman, Shu Chen, Katja Hanewal, Bingqin Li, Min Su and Zhongliang Zhou

Abstract: Overuse of health care is a potential factor in explaining the rapid increase in health care expenditure in many countries; however, it is difficult to measure overuse. This study employed the novel method of using unannounced standardised patients (SPs) to identify overuse, document its patterns and quantify its financial impact on patients in primary care in China. We trained 18 SPs to present consistent cases of two common chronic diseases and recorded 492 physician patient interactions in 63 public and private primary hospitals in a capital city in western China in 2017 and 2018. Overuse, defined as the provision of unnecessary medical tests and drugs, was identified by a panel of medical experts based on national clinical guidelines. We estimated linear regression models to investigate how hospital, physician and patient characteristics were associated with overuse and to quantify the financial impact of overuse after controlling for a series of fixed effects. We found overuse in 72.15% of the SP visits. The high prevalence of overuse was similar among public and private hospitals, low-competence and high-competence physicians, male and female physicians, junior and senior physicians and male and female patients, but it varied between patients presenting different diseases. Compared to the non-overuse group, overuse significantly increased the total cost by 117.8%, the test cost by 58.8% and the drug cost by 100.3%. The financial impact of overuse was consistent across the aforementioned hospital, physician and patient characteristics. We suggest that the overuse observed in this study is unlikely to be attributable to physician incompetence but rather to the financing framework for primary care in China. These findings illuminate the cost escalation of primary care in China, which is a form of medical inefficiency that should be urgently addressed.

Keywords: health care expenditure, overuse, primary care, standardised patient, China

Supplementary Material

Research Publications

The Construction of the "Older Worker"

Zacher, H. and Rudolph, C.W. (2023). Merit. 3(1), 115-130

Research Publications

The Association between Multimorbidity and Osteoporosis Investigation and Treatment in High-risk Fracture Patients in Australia: A Prospective Cohort Study

Bliuc, D., Tran, T., Chen, W., Alarkawi, D., Alajlouni, D.A., Blyth, F., March, L., Ensrud, K.E., Blank, R.D. and Center, J.R. (2023). PLoS Med. 20(1), Article e1004142

Research Publications

Memory Binding Test and its Associations with Hippocampal Volume across the Cognitive Continuum Preceding Dementia

Markova, H., Fendrych Mazancova, A., Jester, D. J., Cechova, K., Matuskova, V., Nikolai, T., Nedelska, Z., Uller, M., Andel, R., Laczó, J., Hort, J., and Vyhnalek, M. (2023). Assessment. 30(3), 856-872

Research Publications

The Heterogeneous Effect of Parental Investment on Old-age Support: Only Children as the Main Caregivers in China

Yang, M.X., Chen, C., and Lu, B. (2023). The Journal of Family Issues (SJR-Q1). 45(1), 206-236

Research Publications

Patient perceptions of care quality and discharge information following same-day cardiac catheterization laboratory procedures: A mixed-methods study

Hames, K., White, K., Ockerby, C., Williams, R., Hutchinson, A. (2023). Nursing Open. 10(5), 3263-3273

Research Publications

The Role of Individual Goal Orientations in Shaping Skill Utilization Over Time: A Four-year Longitudinal Study

Klonek, F., Zhang, F., Nguyen, H., Johnson, A., Liu, Y., and Parker, S. K. (2023). European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology. 1-13

Colleagues collaborating over data
Working Papers

Dynamics of Health Expectancy: An introduction to Multiple Multistate Method (MMM)

Tianyu Shen, Collin Payne and Maria Jahromi 

 

Abstract: Many studies have compared individual measures of health expectancy across older populations by time-invariant variables. However, very few have included time-varying variables when calculating health expectancy. Since events in the life course are likely to be changing over time in related ways, it is valuable to incorporate time-varying socioeconomic factors. This paper proposes a Multiple Multistate Method (MMM) that situates the multistate model within the broader family of Vector Autoregression (VAR) models. When estimating multistate models with sample survey data, sparseness in the transition matrices often makes such models unfeasible should two or more time-varying variables be built into the state spaces. This approach allows for the estimation of more complex state spaces (including the modeling of time-varying covariates) by reducing less important interactions in the model. We then demonstrate the MMM in two empirical applications, showing the flexibility of the approach to explore health expectancies with complex state spaces.


Key words: Multistate model, discrete-time Markov processes, microsimulation, health expectancy, VAR model

 

Research Publications

A Bloody Controversy: Menstrual Leave in Indonesia

Colussi, S., Hill, E., Baird, M. (2023). In SAGE Business Cases. United Kingdom: Sage Publications Ltd.

Research Publications

Financial Literacy and Financial Behavior at Older Ages

Mitchell, O.S. and Lusardi, A. (2023). In Bloom, D., Sousa-Poza, A. and Sunde, U. (eds). The Routledge Handbook of the Economics of Ageing. Routledge, Oxon, UK. Chapter 31

Research Publications

The demography of the five Intergenerational Reports

McDonald, P. (2023). In A.Podger, J. Hall and M. Woods (eds). More than Fiscal: The Intergenerational Report, Sustainability and Public Policy in Australia. ANU Press, Canberra. Chapter 4

Research Publications

Development of a Safe Mobilisation Program to Improve Functional Mobility and Reduce Fall Risk in Older Adults with Cognitive Impairment and Gait Disorders

Zhang, W., Low, L., Gwynn, J. and Clemson, L. (2023). Topics in Geriatric Rehabilitation. 39(1), 47-57

The Macroeconomic Implications of Uncertainty and Learning for Entrepreneurship
Working Papers

The Macroeconomic Implications of Uncertainty and Learning for Entrepreneurship

Han Gao and Lichen Zhang

Abstract: Entrepreneurs face non-trivial uncertainty upon entry and they gradually learn about their innate ability to reduce uncertainty over the life cycle. In this paper, we first establish empirical facts on entrepreneurial productivity uncertainty and learning using novel subjective belief data, which is consistent with life-cycle income profiles and outcomes of self-employed from the U.S. administrative data. We then introduce uncertainty faced by entrepreneurs and an endogenous learning process that are well-disciplined by the data into a heterogeneous agent life cycle model with occupational choice and financial frictions. Finally, we use the model to quantitatively exploit two important macroeconomic implications: (1) the sources of secularly declining entrepreneurship in the U.S. in the recent three decades; and (2) how large-scale policies aimed at reviving entrepreneurship should be designed, e.g. progressive personal income tax v.s flat tax. We show that our model with life-cycle learning dynamics changes the view to think about those macro aspects regarding entrepreneurship compared to the existing literature.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship, Learning, Beliefs, Personal Income Taxation, Heterogeneous Agents Life Cycle Model

 

Research Publications

Retaining retirement-eligible older workers through training participation: The joint implications of individual growth need and organizational climates

Li, Y., Turek, K., Henkens, K., & Wang, M. (2022). Journal of Applied Psychology

Research Publications

From Inclusive Climate to Organizational Innovation: Examining Internal and External Enablers for Knowledge Management Capacity

Li, Y., Shao, Y., Wang, M., Fang, Y., Gong, Y., & Li, C. (2022). Journal of Applied Psychology. 107(2), 2285–2305

Research Publications

What Makes You Proactive Can Burn You Out: The Downside of Proactive Skill Building Motivated by Financial Precarity and Fear

Lebel, R. D., Yang, X., Parker, S.K. and Kamran-Morley, D. (2022). Journal of Applied Psychology

Research Publications

Dynamic asset-liability management problem in a continuous-time model with delay

Chunxiang, A., Shen, Y. and Zeng, Y. (2022). International Journal of Control. 95, 1315 - 1336

State Pension Eligibility Age and Retirement Behaviour: Evidence from the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study
Working Papers

State Pension Eligibility Age and Retirement Behaviour: Evidence from the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study

Ricky Kanabar and Adriaan Kalwij

 

Abstract: We examine individuals’ retirement behaviour in response to changes in the State Pension eligibility age introduced in various Pension Acts in the UK. Our findings show that the annual probability of retirement reduced significantly in response to a one-year increase in State Pension eligibility age, by 16 pp and 13 pp for men and women respectively. They also show that women adjusted their expected retirement age downwards in response to an increase in their SP eligibility age. These findings suggest that whilst an increase in the State Pension eligibility age induces individuals to postpone actual retirement, it does not lead to individuals  revising their expected retirement age upwards, which could result in suboptimal retirement planning. The latter can be problematic for those who rely disproportionately on State Pension as their main source of income and, arguably, targeted communication campaigns are needed to improve retirement planning

Keywords: Retirement, Expectations, United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study

Research Publications

Demography and COVID-19: Risks, responses and impacts

Jantra, S., Temple, J., Wilson, T., & Payne, C. (2022). Journal of Population Research. 39, 475–478

Research Publications

Disease burden of ageing, sex and regional disparities and health resources allocation: a longitudinal analysis of 31 provinces in Mainland China

Chen, S., Si, Y., Hanewald, K., Li, B., Bateman, H., Dai, X., Wu, C., and Tang, S. (2022). BMJ Open. 12(11), e064641

Research Publications

Syntheses and Ways Forward

Yiengprugsawan, V. and Piggott, J. (2023). In Yiengprugsawan, V. and Piggott, J. (eds). Shaping Long-Term Care in Emerging Asia: Policy and Country Experiences. Routledge, Abingdon, Oxon, UK.

Research Publications

Setting the Scene

Yiengprugsawan, V. and Piggott, J. (2023). In Yiengprugsawan, V. and Piggott, J. (eds). Shaping Long-Term Care in Emerging Asia: Policy and Country Experiences. Routledge, Abingdon, Oxon, UK.

Research Publications

Ageing, Health, and Social Transitions in Selected Emerging Asian Economies

Yiengprugsawan, V. and Piggott, J. (2023). In Yiengprugsawan, V. and Piggott, J. (eds). Shaping Long-Term Care in Emerging Asia: Policy and Country Experiences. Routledge, Abingdon, Oxon, UK.

Research Publications

Shaping Long-Term Care in Emerging Asia: Policy and Country Experiences.

Yiengprugsawan, V. and Piggott, J. (2022). Routledge, Abingdon, Oxon, UK.

Research Publications

THE 45 AND UP STUDY: AN INVESTMENT IN HEALTHY AGEING

Byles, J. (2022). Public Health Research & Practice. 32(4), e3242231

Research Publications

Economic disadvantage among older people in rural Indonesia: Risk and protective factors

Absor, M., McDonald, P. and Utomo, A. (2022). Journal of Population Ageing. 

Research Publications

Evaluation of the Best M4 Competition Methods for Small Area Population Forecasting

Wilson, T., Grossman, I., & Temple, J. (2023). International Journal of Forecasting. 39(1), 110-112

Research Publications

Reliability, validity, and user-experience of remote unsupervised computerised neuropsychological assessment in community-living 55 to 75-year-olds

Kochan A.N., Heffernan M., Valenzuela M., Sachdev P.S., Lam B.C.P., Singh M F., Anstey K.J., Chau T., & Brodaty H. (2022). Journal of Alzheimers Disease. 90(4), 1629-1645

Research Publications

An analysis of PubMed abstracts from 1946 to 2021 to identify organizational affiliations in epidemiological criminology: descriptive study

Karystianis, G., Lukmanjaya, W., Simpson, P., Schofield, P.W., Ginnivan, N., Nenadic, G., van Leeuwen, M.T., Buchan, I. & Butler, T. (2022). Interactive Journal of Medical Research. 11(2), e42891

Research Publications

Evaluation of a new simplified population projection model: a case study of local government area projections in Tasmania

Wilson, T. and Grossman, I. (2022). Australasian Journal of Regional Studies. 28(1), 55-73

Research Publications

Opioid deprescribing: Qualitative perspectives from those with chronic non-cancer pain

Hamilton, M., Gnjidic, D., Christine Lin, C.W., Jansen, J., Weir, K.R., Shaheed, C.A., Blyth, F. and Mathieson, S. (2022). Res Social Adm Pharm. 

Research Publications

Associations between data-driven lifestyle profiles and cognitive function in the AusDiab study

Dingle S.E., Bowe S.J., Bujtor M., Milte C.E., Daly R.M., Anstey K.J., Shaw J.E., & Torres S.J. (2022). BMC Public Health. 22(1), 1990

Research Publications

Crossover Effects of Parent Work-to-family Experiences on Child Work Centrality: A Moderated Mediation Model

Steiner, R. S., Hirschi, A. and Wang, M. (2022). Journal of Applied Psychology

Research Publications

I could no longer cope at home’: Experiences of clients and families in residential aged care within the context of Australia’s aged care reforms

Monro, C., O’Loughlin, K., Mackenzie, L. & Do Toit, S. (2022). Australasian Journal on Ageing

Research Publications

Anti-resorptive medication use is not associated with acute cardiovascular risk: An observational study: Anti-resorptive medication and cardiovascular risk

Bliuc, D., Tran, T., Chen, W., Alarkawi, D., Alajlouni, D.A., Blyth, F., March, L., Blank, R.D. and Center, J.R. (2022). J Clin Endocrinol Metab. dgac669

Research Publications

Getting ready for the future, is it worth it? A dual-pathway model of age and technology acceptance at work

Fasbender, U. & Gerpott, F. H., & Rinker, L. (2023). Work, Aging & Retirement. 9(4), 358–375

Research Publications

Getting Ready for the Future, is it Worth it? A Dual Pathway Model of Age and Technology Acceptance at Work

Fasbender, U., Gerpott, F. H., & Rinker, L. (2022). Work, Aging and Retirement. waac03

Research Publications

Barriers and enablers to the delivery and implementation of the Tailored Activity Program in Australia: perspectives of occupational therapists and their managers

Bennett, S., Travers, C., Liddle, J., O’Connor, C.M.C., Low, L.F., Laver, K., Clemson, L., O’Reilly, M., Beattie, E., Smith, S. and Gitlin, L.N. (2022). Australian Occupational Therapy Journal. 

Research Publications

Diagnostic accuracy of linked administrative data for dementia diagnosis in community-dwelling older men in Australia

Chow, E.P.F., Hsu, B., Waite, L.M., Blyth, F.M., Handelsman, D.J., Le Couteur, D.G., Naganathan, V. Stanaway, F.F. (2022). BMC Geriatr. 22(1), 858

Research Publications

Gender is Dynamic for all people

Brady, B., Rosenberg, S., Newman, C., Kaladelfos, A., Duck-Chong, E., Kenning, G., & Bennett, J. (2022). Discover Psychology. 2, Article #41

Research Publications

Do neighbourhood traffic-related air pollution and socio-economic status moderate the associations of the neighbourhood physical environment with cognitive function? Findings from the AusDiab study

Cerin, E., Barnett, A., Wu, Y. T., Martino, E., Shaw, J. E., Knibbs, L.D., Poudel, G., Jalaudin, B., & Anstey, K.J. (2022). The Science of Total Environment. 858(3), 160028