Manuela Naldini, Myra Hamilton and Elisabeth Adamson

Abstract: The social investment paradigm has received widespread attention as an approach to ‘prepare’ individuals, families, and societies to respond to new social risks they are likely to encounter throughout the life course, particularly those associated with post-industrialisation and globalisation. Early childhood education and care (ECEC) and policies that support women to participate in employment have been a central focus of the social investment paradigm.

But while post-industrialisation and globalisation are closely linked to increases in migration, migrant families are largely absent from social investment policies. From a social investment perspective, access to ECEC and work/care reconciliation policy measures are crucial for migrant children and families. Yet there is a gap in the social investment literature when it comes to access to ECEC and work/care reconciliation policies by migrant families.

Against this backdrop, this paper asks: To what extent are migrant families included or excluded from ECEC and work/care reconciliation policies in the two countries?

Drawing on a comprehensive analysis of eligibility for and access to ECEC and work/care policies by migrant families in Australia and Italy, this paper critically examines the capacity of the social investment approach to respond to new life course risks associated with migration and mobility.

This paper compares social investment policies for migrant families in two countries: Australia and Italy. These two countries have markedly different migration, employment, and care regimes, with both similarities and differences in the organisation of ECEC and policies to promote work/care reconciliation.

It draws attention to the way in which the emergence of the social investment paradigm to address ‘new social risks’ does not take account of the importance of migration and mobility in the contemporary life course.

George Kudrna, John Piggott and Phitawat Poonpolkul

Abstract: This paper examines the economy-wide effects of government policies to extend public pensions in emerging Asia - particularly pertinent given the region’s large informal sector and rapid population ageing. We first document stylized facts about Indonesia’s labour force, drawing on the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS). This household survey is then used to calibrate micro behaviours in a stochastic, overlapping-generations (OLG) model with formal and informal labour. The benchmark model is calibrated to the Indonesian economy (2000-2019), fitted to Indonesian demographic, household survey, macroeconomic and fiscal data. The model is applied to simulate pension policy extensions targeted to formal labour (contributory pension extensions to all formal workers with formal retirement age increased from 55 to 65), as well as to informal labour (introduction of non-contributory social pensions to informal 65+). First, abstracting from population ageing, we show that: (i) the first set of pension policy extensions (that have already been legislated and are being implemented in Indonesia) have positive effects on consumption, labour supply and welfare (of formal workers) (due largely to the formal retirement age extension); (ii) the introduction of social pensions targeted to informal workers at older age generates large welfare gains for currently living informal elderly; and (iii) the overall pension reform leads to higher welfare across the employment-skill distribution of households. We then extend the model to account for demographic transition, finding that the overall pension reform makes the contributory pension system more sustainable but the fiscal cost of non-contributory social pensions more than triples to 1.7% of GDP in the long run. As an alternative, we examine application of a means-tested social pension system within the overall pension reform. We show that this counterfactual reduces the fiscal cost (of social pensions) and further increases the welfare for both current and future generations.

Keywords: Informal Labour, Population Ageing, Social Security, Taxation, Re- distribution, Stochastic General Equilibrium.

Abstract: Can projections of retirement wealth and income motivate pension plan participants to save more? Results of field and online experiments show that participants who see both retirement balance and income projections increase voluntary savings. In the field study, conducted by a large Australian pension plan in 2013-14, participants of the treatment group received current balance, projected retirement balance and projected retirement income information, while participants of the control received only current balance information. Within one year of the treatment, the frequency, and average amount, of voluntary savings by treated plan participants rose significantly, as did the rate of participants interactions with the plan. In the related online experiment conducted in 2017, we tested the relative effect of information on (i) current balance; (ii) current balance and projected retirement balance; (iii) current balance and projected retirement income; and (iv) current balance, projected retirement balance and projected retirement income. Consistent with the field trial, the combination of retirement balance and income projections motivates a significantly higher retirement savings accumulation, after a sequence of ten savings decisions, than current balance information alone. Together our results strongly endorse recent changes to retirement plan benefit statement guidelines initiated by pension regulators globally.

Keywords: pensions, field experiment, benefit projections

Erik Hernaes, Zhiyang Jia, John Piggott and Trond Christian Vigtel

Abstract: Many consider that reducing the eligibility age for pension benefits will discourage labor supply by mature workers. This paper analyzes a recent Norwegian pension reform which effectively lowered the eligibility age of retirement from 67 to 62 for a group of workers. For the individuals we study, the expected present value of benefits was held constant by introducing flexible claiming and actuarially adjusting the periodic pension payment. This neutralized the income effect of decreasing the access age, while the abolition of any earnings test ensured constant present value of the pension, independent of the age when it is claimed. This provides us with a unique opportunity to study the isolated impact of increased flexibility. We employ a particular difference-in-difference approach, which allows us to study the effect on the distribution of labor supply behavior (represented by earnings) instead of just the mean. Older workers are found to stay longer in the labor market but with reduced intensity, implying a higher incidence of gradual exit. On average the reform leads to small and statistically insignificant increases in aggregate earnings over ages 62 to 66. The fiscal effect was negligible, due to actuarial adjustments of pensions and small changes in aggregate earnings. We do however find a reduced inflow to disability, which may add to any positive fiscal effect. Our findings thus suggest that increased pension flexibility could promote gradual exit from the labor market, allowing improved individual choice and positive welfare effects. It could also be an important component of a broader pension reform.

Keywords: Retirement, Pension, Flexibility

Abstract: The paper examines climate mitigation strategies to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century, focusing on smoothing macroeconomic costs in the short- to medium-term—the horizon relevant for policymakers. It explores a comprehensive policy package, which complements carbon pricing with an initial green fiscal stimulus, consisting of green public investment and subsidies to renewables production. Model simulations show that thanks to the green public spending, the policy package boosts global output relative to the baseline for the first 15 years of the low-carbon transition. Subsequent transitional output costs resulting from further increases in carbon prices are moderate of the order of 1 percent of baseline global GDP by 2050. The findings suggest that upfront green fiscal packages could help smooth the transition to a low-carbon economy. In the current context of the Covid-19 economic crisis, they would help support the recovery from the crisis and put the global economy on a greener, more sustainable path.

Keywords: Climate Change, Net-Zero Emissions, Green Infrastructure, Macroeconomics, DSGE, CGE, G-Cubed

Michael Keane and Timothy Neal

Abstract: There is a long standing controversy over the magnitude of the Frisch labor supply elasticity. Macro economists using DSGE models often calibrate it to be large, while many micro data studies find it is small. Several papers attempt to reconcile the micro and macro results. We offer a new and simple explanation: Most micro studies estimate the Frisch using a 2SLS regression of hours changes on income changes. But available instruments are typically “weak.” In that case, we show it is an inherent property of 2SLS that estimates of the Frisch will (spuriously) appear more precise when they are more shifted in the direction of the OLS bias, which is negative. As a result, Frisch elasticities near zero will (spuriously) appear to be precisely estimated, while large estimates will appear to be imprecise. This pattern makes it difficult for a 2SLS t-test to detect a true positive Frisch elasticity. We show how the use of a weak instrument robust hypothesis test, the Anderson-Rubin (AR) test, leads us to conclude the Frisch elasticity is large and significant in the NLSY97 data. In contrast, a conventional 2SLS t-test would lead us to conclude it is not significantly different from zero. Our application illustrates a fundamental problem with 2SLS t-tests that arises quite generally, even with strong instruments. Thus, we argue the AR test should be widely adopted in lieu of the t-test.

Keywords: Frisch elasticity, labor supply, weak instruments, 2SLS, Anderson-Rubin test

Hans Fehr, Maurice Hofmann and George Kudrna 

Abstract: This paper studies the role of pensions and income taxes in determining homeownership and household wealth. It provides a cross-country analysis, using tax and pension policy designs in Germany, the US and Australia. These developed nations have similar incomes per capita but very different homeownership rates, with the US and Australia having much higher homeownership compared to Germany. The question is to what extent the observed differences in homeownership are induced by national tax and transfer policies. To that end, we develop a stochastic, overlapping generations (OLG) model with tenure choice. The model is calibrated to Germany featuring German statutory public pension and dual income tax systems, and then applied to study the effects of alternative income tax and pension policy structures. Our simulation results indicate that the US and Australian policy designs have a dramatic impact on homeownership, explaining more than half of the observed differentials. We also show significant macroeconomic effects due to differences in tax and pension policies.

Keywords: Housing demand, social security, income taxation, stochastic general equilibrium

Rafal Chomik and Michael Jacinto

The analysis in this Fact Sheet looks at the ageing patterns in sport. It brings together existing literature and the latest data to illustrate the optimal ages at which physiology, training, and strategy combine for different sports for both men and women, and how this is changing over time. Analysis relies on data from the Olympics as well as from four popular professional sports: tennis, cricket, association football (soccer), and Australian rules football. Finally, a comparison of age distributions in community sports shows how sport is the domain of every age group.